There is difference between analyzing a stock and researching a stock. This stock story is the perfect case study for it. Nowadays, where anything and everything to do with granites/ceramics/tiles is going out of roof, its very difficult to get cheap but high quality and high growth companies. If the research is not proper its easier to get into the trap of Madhavs and Stylamsz of the world.
Background: ARO Granite Industries started operations as a 100% Export Oriented Unit in 1991 for processing Polished / Flamed/modular Granite Tiles & Slabs. It is engaged in manufacturing of modular granite tiles and granite random slabs. It is a star export house; exporting to around 30 countries like North and South America, Europe (UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy), Africa, Greece, Portugal , Iran and the Far East. Their plants are strategically located and therefore, it gets direct access to quarries in South India, which are known for the finest and widest range of appealing granites. The company has installed the most sophisticated and environment-friendly granite processing machinery imported from Italy.
Past Great Future Even Better: Last year company completed yet another expansion plan (they have to keep expanding because due to the high demand of their products, they are almost always running full capacity – it’s the best part), complete effect of which will be seen this year. As per my interaction with the management the company would become debt free this year(ex-working capital debt). This would be strong bottom-line booster. This quarter promoters have freed all their shares from the pledge too. Revenues have almost doubled in last four years and bottom-line has more than doubled. The management is very upbeat about the growth prospects moving forward and there’s a reason to it. According to them, if they could double both topline and bottomline, inspite of recessionary trends in the world, now that world economy, and especially domestic economy, is picking up, “bettering” what they have achieved so far should be a piece of cake. Most of their growth has come, courtesy export markets but they could also start focusing on domestic market if they see smart cities project actually taking off. This could take the growth to another level.
Why To Buy: The Company has been very consistent with dividends and has also been rewarding shareholder with regular bonuses and is available at extremely compelling valuations of less than 4.2 times trailing PE. The company would keep bettering on the growth moving forward and would be a clear beneficiary of word economy picking up and smart cities project could be the icing on cake. The company would become debt free this year. With a lot of its raw materials being imported and most of the products exported, the company is naturally hedged against currency fluctuations. A point to note is that No other company in this sector has this level of natural hedge. It’s great because it saves finance costs. The company’s almost doubling its sales every four years and should better this moving forward. The company that’s consistently growing for last 10 yrs, regularly rewarding shareholders with bonus shares and dividends and is in one of the hottest sectors of the moment cannot keep on trading at these kinds of ridiculous valuations. The management quality is impeccable here. This is one stock that has not just survived but thrived in harsh business environment and with improving business environment, the company can graduate to a new level altogether.
Super Compelling Valuations: With the current market cap of just 100cr and cash equivalents of more than 15cr + last near net profit of 21 cr + this quarter’s profit of more than 5cr, we are getting a company in 100cr with around 41cr of cash, This is a wonderful cash bargain. On top of it its being trading at a dirt cheap PE of just 4.2. Even doubling from these levels the stock would still be just 8.5 PE. Given that its peers are trading at anything between 20-80 PE and given the strong demand of its products, strong earning consistency and visibility the stock, backed by an ethical management should get strongly re-rated in near future. Even something like Asian granito (whose net profits have actually reduced by 30% in last five years instead of growing) is trading at 15 PE and orient bell (whose profits have actually been on a downtrend in last 4-5 yrs) is trading at 86 PE – think about it.
Technicals: The stock has given a very strong breakout above 60 after seven long years and these stocks do not just double and stop. They go way higher. The stock is so strong that even in the carnage of last three days the stock is within the kissing distance of its all time highs. This means something.
Note: The stock story is a result of my research and management interaction. Please think about it, research about it and if convinced, only then invest. And once invested, please stay invested. Take volatility in its stride and look at value not price. God Bless.
This is what I call it as guts.., even in this bloodbath you are optimistic .. Thanks much Ace
3-4% decline is not blood bath brother. Bloodbath was in oct 2008. I do not mind 10-15% correction in bull markets.
LoL .. If you look in to small cap it’s around 7-8%…. Any ways this is expected.. I was part of 2008 story and I agree with you Ace…
hey ace, finally feel good oppurtunity to buy Waterbase on these dips. read lot of articles and journals about how demand for artificially cultured sea food (as more scope of controlling quality) is on the rise in Asian nations since its part of appetite. so feed food demand will also go up.
so just want to know how would the indian market rerate this industry pe going forward. i mean, there is no benchmark as such. any thoughts ?
who knows. Let markets tell us. Normally high growth companies with strong earnings visibility get around 25-35 PE , but it could also go higher. But this is all guess work, let the markets tell us.
Ace, what is your valuable opinion about “Natural Capsules”?
still under research
A very naive question .Why is the cash flow from operating negative and cash flow from financing positive for this company ?
they could be capitalizing on financing activities. By the way cash flows are not always positive for manufacturing companies.
Actually what do you you mean by this statement ?
🙂 google it. Basically nothing to worry about
hey just a thought, maybe taking that wharton’s accounting class may also be a good idea. God Bless.
Hello ace, such reply from you is not expected, we are reading and studying all such blogs as that of your coz we people dont understand certain concepts of finance, economics or micros. Can we conclude that gap of cash from operating activities is being filled up by financing activities?
Hello Mehul, I expect some effort from the readers also. Why did you feel bad if i asked someone to google something. I had already given first level of answer. You give people food they eat and finish it and they are back to square one, you teach them farming, they never have to sleep hungry. Its up to investor’s to decide whether they want just borrowed conviction or want to develop their own.
Well said, Partially agreed ….
🙂
thanks for taking it in the right spirit. Anyways, just quickly, positive cash flow from finanace could come by receiving cash from issuing stock and receiving cash from issuing bonds. negative cash flow from finance could be because of activities like using cash to repurchase previously issued stock, pay debt and/or to pay interest on debt and to pay dividends to shareholders (which is obviously good). So in a nutshell, even negative cash flow
from financing activities is also not entire bad, one should understand the nature. God bless
aceji-namo sir r looking energysector specially oil&gas to self dependent at this juncture which stock is buy? down stream or upstream? also onshore or offshore co:can u suggests 2to 3 stock which can provide multibagger return.
thanks
nothing at this stage in this sector
Hi Ace…Looks like a good bet but hardly any volume!! Its sure to hit UC tomorrow morning….your views??
Thanks
dont just look at last 2-3 days volume. volume is comfortable. see i dont know if it will hit UC because our retail investors are very strange. they will look at nifty and their enthusiasm will die down. not many would be smart enough to buy such a wonderful and safe stock because they would feel scared. buy when others are selling is the most difficult thing to do and people who do that make most money. The stock is insulated to most of the factors and is available at throw away price. AS i wrote even if it doubles from here it is just 8.5 PE, even if its 8-9 PE, its a shame because this stock deserves much better PE.
i realize you play a lot on conviction and fundamentals….two pillars for long term bets..would love to see what happens if i place an order of 10K shares tomorrow…
Thanks Ace
nothing will happen. even if its UC then i will try on monday. even with 100% appreciation it would be still 8.5 PE. That again is so cheap that I will buy even at those valuations, because see, if the stock keeps on growing, the stock is bound to get re-rated. I do not say it should get 30PE right away, but even 8-9 PE is insulting for this stock. even after three UC this stock would just 6.5 PE 🙂 less than 7…how ridiculous is that. Low PE is not the criteria, dont take me wrong ok, but the point is that we are getting a company with 40cr cash, which is doubling every 4 yrs (even during recession), which means that the growth is real and management is smart, then it “has to” get re-rated. look what happened to waterbase…it kept on growing silently and one fine day when somebody discovered it, it zoomed. God bless.
hi ACE, your view on indraprastha medical corporation for long term?
not interested. not a scalable company.
Dear Brother,
Do you think about ur older post to give call again to buy ?
For example;
Like Aimco or Waterbase etc. come down from peak n you think again one can go with that…
never thought about it you guys want that kind of thing too ? Right now if i have to buy in this kind of market i would buy a safe but supremely under-rated stock like Aro granite. Its already available at throw away price.
Agree brother
Thanks Ace, for Aro granite,want to buy 1000 shares,hope I get them tommorow, today added some more Freshtrop @ 59/=.
ofcourse you would get it. buy it in the morning as soon as market opens. I know nobody is going to buy because everyone would be looking at nifty 🙂 and thats where is the opportunity for us.
Ha ha, hope Nifty gives a scare tommorow also, because thats when I take out my cheque book.
aceji- v2r released pledge share currently.
where did you find that information
Hi ACE, May I ask you how long you have been into the market? I guess more than 12+ years? I simple like yours analysis and thought process behind every stock story. I just started following you this month only and became great fan of you..learning so many things from you. however, I missed past stock stories at good valuations. Never mind and thanks for putting up new idea.
aro is a rare value+growth story
ACE, is this the right time to buy PRAKASh IND.?
why would anyone want to buy prakash ?
hahaha…i expected the same reply..it indicates i am learning from you. i don’t buy this stock but asked you to know your view.
ok np. No but really dont buy such stocks. God bless.
Hi Ace,
What about elegant granites, which is cheaper than aro granite and it is having more than 20 CR equity investments and a good company, dividend , less pe, promoter holding and is available at less than 50. In which way aro is better than elegant.
Thanks
i dont like a stock because it is cheap, i like if its cheap and it is growing. There’s no growth shown by elegant. What’s the point of buying..elegant deserves these valuations only. Value without growth is value trap
Small clarification bottom line is doubled for elegant in the last 4 yeras to its current EPS 10. Can you tell us one fundamental either PE,EPS,PROMOTER HOLDING, YoY growth one parameter where aro is better than Elegant marbles?. one more doubt When aro is operating with full capcacity utilization, why operating income is negative then..pls clarify
look at at last 5-10 yrs growth pls.
What do you mean by distributing?
yup, i know the rules. There’s nothing violating rules here. Not sure the context of previous comment.
i know. Thanks. God Bless
Ace investor
I appreciate you posting your thoughts on the stock. But your statements such as “buy first thing on Friday, even at upper circuit it is cheap” – betrays a sense of urgency on your side to get the stock to stock up. This makes me slightly suspicious that helping the investor is not the most important criteria. I will stay away from your picks solely because of this reason.
Dear adifferentshadeofblack,
please stay away so that we can buy these stocks at better bargain .
Thanks
no thats ok brother. Different opinions make a market. He probably has some preconceived notions about me and that is the only thing thats hurting …opinion matter, no matter what 🙂 …god bless
brother try this on vp blog, he will not even publish your comments…
ok,you can stay away, infact i do not ask people to buy. the reason i say that is because if you see previously, the stock used to open at UC and stay there for next couple of days and people would be unable to buy. Secondly, i said I normally buy at the opening.
Hi aceji,
I was wondering how do you interact with the xompany management, is it possible for a small time investors like us to interact with the company representative? If yes what is the approach. Please enlighten.
mail them…or call them …take an appointment and go. no harm. Especially CS’s one of the jobs is to answer the investor queries.
Hey ace, is there a prerequisite. Do I have to hold shares in the company and provide proof beforehand. Or can I inquire with an intention to know whether to invest or not
most companies ask for DPID
So I can hold 1 share also and proceed to make inquiries right?
true, i do the same 🙂 . Only issue is that meeting companies involve a lot of capital.
The travelling expense right? That’s ok, it’s worth the conviction you build.
traveling and boarding. but you have a nice way of thinking. Yes, its worth the conviction.
Hi ace, could you please give your opinion on avanti, mastek and mold-tek pack.
avanti and mold-tek are good
Ace Bhai,
Your views on Lloyd Electric?
Thanks
its fine.
If they try to reduce there debt then I will buy at higher rate not at this point.
Debt equity ratio is not attractive.
debt is mostly working capital. right now they have a debt of around 7cr only and by this FY end they would become debt free.
but the debt is actually 95 Cr..How can they become debt free in this FY
thats working capital debt, not long term debt. Working capital debt is not considered to be debt.
also updated the post so that there’s no confusion to any reader.
Ace,
There could be reasons unknown that this stock didn’t participate in bull run till now. If most of the companies have moved up then why not this one?
See Orient Bell, the company price is stuck for long time. Can’t compare 1-1 as Orient is in specific area of tiles like digital tiles and in niche sector whereas Aro is more on volume and in generic sector.
When orient Bell gives 1 goos result which will be turnaround it will be a non stoppable horse.
Not sure of Aro.. they make ordinary generic marble granite etc..
if and buts are unknown variables in markets and bring along uncertainty and therefore, eats valuations. What markets pays for is good consistent growth and visibility. Not every stock gets discovered at day1 in bull markets. Infact, at every stage the market keeps discovering these gems. Brands do command premium, but so does growth. Any company, no matter how niche, that does not grow cannot keep commanding premium valuations and any company that keeps on growing would one day get re-rated. Thats the beauty of markets.
First of all , dear friend , you cannot compare asian granito/orient ceramics and aro granite. These are 2 very very very different businesses. Aro is into the export business and Asian granito is into the retailing of internal home furnishings. Historically Aro granite has traded at low valuations. I know this stock from 2004 levels. they are a good dividend play. The stocks Beta is very low.
This is the same way that you tried to compare cupid rubbers with a pharma stock. You cannot just compare apples and cauliflowers.
actually cupid is a pharma stock, yes i agree Aro granite not strictly comparable, with Asian, but the sector is considered same and more importantly asian granito and orient are not growing. Thats the point i was trying to emphasize on. Here the company is growing. Markets pays for consistent growth.
Hi Ace
On analysis the financial statements of Aro granite , I could see the following points
Total debt increased from 95 crores in 2013 to 110 crores in 2014
But there is no increase in Machinery values , In fact it decreaed from 124 crores to 118 crores ( Gross block)
Seems that they are borrowing money for working capital requirements , because the cash flow is not good
Do we need to consider all these points also
Kindly advice
yes, company has erratic cash flow, but thats not too much of a worry for me here.Till the company is growing and debt is under check, cash flows will take care of itself.
Hello Ace,
Why does the debt increase every year, though it is not long term debts ?
working capital debt. this is normal in this industry nothing to worry about.
Hi Ace,
Whats your view on Fedders llyod? Thanks!
nothig great at this moment
Hi, what are views on R Systems International? I feel it is a good company. The pedigree of management is good too.
yup but i am not comfortable
Sir, could you pls throw some light. Would be very helpful
sorry, light on what?
Light on why you are not comfortable with R Systems International
The company is a growing one. It caters to different industries through it IT Solutions. At the same time its presence is all over the world.
Your insights would be really nice.
oh ok. actually its just another IT services company. thats what i do not like it. being part of Software industry i know there’s nothing that differentiates these guys.
Hi Ace..can parabolic drugs be bought for long term?
IMHO, not now. lot of ppl are asking about it. I want to ask, what is that you are seeing in this company?
Also planning to get into veer energy..would love to have your views!!
dont like it at the moment
Dear Ace,Can you please provide your valuable view on IFB Agro. This company with near zero debt, and no pledged share trades at 5 PE. Their Marine business could be compared to the peers like Avati Feeds, Waterbase. Still it trades at a very cheap valuation.
still under research. Not very confident of it as of now.
Ace sir,
Can u throw some light.on Dion Globel which was known earlier Fortis Finance. I have its share since 2008..n now a days it is flying..
yes i know it. Its probably flying because its doing all the right things at the moment.
So I should hold for another long term..Need ur yes or no..
if you are convinced then yes
Thanks
No complaints from people that they did’nt get the share, even Ace posted after mkt Hours … Now i wonder how many of his followers actually bought the share ?
🙂 people should only buy if they are convinced.
True… but that is not happening..
didnt get you.
What i mean is very few people are real investors looking for long term…Rest looking short term and the hike in share price for short term..
thats true. and thats sad. not the right way to make big money. only their brokers would be rich and not them.
Purchased @ 78 this morning. I am a regular follower of this blog. Even i prefer that idea is posted during market hours. But it totally depends on the blow owner. I think the number of comments for Freshtrop Fruits which was posted during market hours prove that there are more ppl who like it during market hours. Anyways I am happy as long as i am able to buy these stocks at good valuation. few % up and down hardly matter for long term. What matters is the conviction. My vote still goes to during market hour posting..
Ur statement “”few % up and down hardly matter for long term”” is not justifying ur stand to post Ace during mkt hours….
Superb!
Hi Ace, Do you like Shetron from the packaging industries. It looks good but has huge debt to equity ratio.
nops. I do not like it
Hi,
i wonder where from fresh capital comes every fortnight to invest in new stock idea. When there is a strong conviction people normally invest fully and left with no money to invest in new stock idea. That’s why people are keep on asking you about your previous ideas to find out whether IMHO suggest to switch from “x” to “y”…etc…
maybe not everyone invests in every idea, so they must be keeping some cash. Its not that there are fixed set of readers right, so new people come and ask. There’s no problem till people are buying after convincing themselves.
Can i buy sequent scientific , mayur uniquoter , liberty shoes at cmp?
Which one will be the best at present price? Convinced will all above stock but cannot buy all.
Kindly shed light how to know that stock we purchase is not overpriced/ right price
liberty i like a lot. mayur, at these valuations is a defensive bet. Sequent at this price is average, i would rather look at a cupid.
hi ace, could you elaborate your view on mayur? Do you think it can compund at 20-25% over the next 3 years?? While I hold it from ~80 levels, it seems to have plateaued a bit and I’m debating between holding a good business for a long time or shifting to faster appreciating ideas. Your views would be nice to know.
see, i think it can compound at 20-25% CAGR, but does that mean even share price would compound at that pace. Hard to say. Its been an “excellent” story so far and may continue to be a stable compounder. I beleive its also been recommended by good brokerage houses now and that means its well research and discovered story. Normally, one would switch from winner only and only if there’s a “much” better opportunity presenting itself that could compounder faster. If you want to play it safe stick to mayur, but if you have a “much” better opportunity already identified, sleep over it for some time and then again question yourself and again only if convinced, swap. As everybody knows i keep evaluating my options. Faster compounding is my motto, although that does not mean churning my core portfolio every now and then. So if you convinced that there’s a much better story available, then you can swap.
Your view on Lloyd Electric, Fluidomat, IFGL Refractory.
already given on this blog
Your view on Lloyd Electric, Fluidomat, IFGL Refractory, TCI
already replied sir.
Hi Ace. What is your view on Lloyd Electric, Fluidomat, IFGL Refractory, TCI
rakesh, i have already given my views on these stocks in my blog before, could you pls search it.
Some mistake. Sorry for posting multiple times. Fluidomat, IFGL, TCI opinions missing. Please advice
i dont like tci, but like other two
Hi ace.
Investors who r already making loses in cupid&freshtrop why would they buy your new idea aro granite even if they have money also.
I never ask anyone to buy anything.freshtrop recommended at 52, cupid at 21. Do you know what are the prices now? and here people buy only once they are convinced. This blog is to motivate investors to research. Investors do not worry about weekly volatility. God Bless you.
Dear Sunny,
please do not try to represent the unknown . Wondering who authorized you talk on behalf of blog followers. Evrryone is here to earn money and grown up enough to take care of self interest .
Thanks
Prashant, I am seeing today a flurry of haters, not sure why? Today, it didnt even close at UC, so not sure why people are hating me 🙂 ..you should see my mail inbox, but i guess that i have started taking all this in stride. Quite a few people abuse me everyday, but i hope others do not mis-understand me. God bless everyone.
Dear aceinvestortraderji,
I follow one rule, when peopels oppose you, abuse you, its guaranteed you are on right track . Unfortunately due to recent run in market, traders thinking that stocks can multiply in weeks, and it did happened in your previous stocks . But that can not be the case for all stocks .
But then market is so brutal it teaches lessons in its own way, market is so kind its gives opportunities to patient .
Please ignore such elements, you can find them on all blogs.
Thanks & Regards,
Prashant
Whats your view on aimco promoters’ trading like activity as per last two SAST in BSE?
confused myself.not sure we know the entire picture
hello ace
r u going to agm of cupid tommorrow???…and on which date WHO will renew thier order in october..
oh man how much i wish i was going to AGMs of companies, but i am again travelling for next few weeks across timezones. The WHO will start the process in Oct, so normally, it take a 4-8 weeks to know the order size.
Hi Ace, I missed Waterbase before.. In your opinion is the CMP good for fresh entry in waterbase for next 2 years?
yes, i like it.
Ace sir,I appreciate the way you reply of every question with a lot of patience..
Place ur views on Eon Electric…
not convinced at the moment
Some of your suspicious statements are
“nothing will happen. even if its UC then i will try on monday. even with 100% appreciation it would be still 8.5 PE. That again is so cheap that I will buy even at those valuations, because see, if the stock keeps on growing, the stock is bound to get re-rated”
🙂 how is that suspicious? You are looking at price and i am looking at value and thats a big difference. You clearly have some preconceived notions about me and you are fixated at that. I am fine with that brother. I am choosing to publish your comments because i want to be clear from my side and let readers take their own decision. as RJ says, if the girl is beautiful, suitors would come. God bless
good reply and good quote of RJ.
yes, he comes up with hilarious one-liners sometimes. Although i not a fan of his investing but i like listening to that guy 🙂
V2 Retail : This extremely attractive valuestock about 2 weeks back reached a high of Rs38 and there were buyers waiting to buy for thousands of shares atrs.38on that day. Now today it is available at Rs31 and it is avalilable in thousands but now buyers. Nothing materially has changed in the Company working and CEO has indicated likly EPS or RS 9 for the current year. Still no buyers at this high discount of 15% on High of RS38 reached just a few days back. Now At RS 31 now this is a more screaming Valuebuy of huge potential.. You are an expert analyst and can you please guide as I wish to buy this further.
Please use your own decision on buying. I am very bullish on it. Two things 1. The stock did not end in lower circuit, it recovered marginally, so all those stocks were bought. 2. I myself bought today – this is my disclosure , but that does not mean you or anyone else should also buy. Take your own decision
Expert analysis ? , are you saying about aceinvestortrader blogger itself ?
Ask some questions related with balance sheet , then you can see the true colour of this expert .
brother, I am not expert. God Bless.
Ace, I have bought recently Ajanta Pharma, Mayur Uniquoter, Kaveri Seed, MPS, Suven, Kitex for long term view. Request your opinion for the above stocks.
very good.
I will be waiting for your valuable openion on V2r posted at 9.03pm above.
already replied brother.
ACE jee Thankyou very much for your such fast reply about my query on V2r. just a few minutes ago. I fully understand it and very useful to me as I have already bought today and I wish to add more. I am very happy and fully satisfied.
yes, but if you are satisfied, why were you worried if there were some sellers…pls understand your own conviction and risk level and then buy. But buy only if convinced. you would sleep better. God bless.
Hi Ace, my recent (two months) purchase is Ajanta Pharma and MPS Ltd. Whats your opinion about these two for long term?
these are good stocks, but i guess, it could take some time to appreciate because it is relatively discovered stock. I would also suggest you to research on cupid. Small caps are volatile, but may give better appreciation. But mps and ajanta are good no doubt.
Sir
. what is your view on Aries agro
interesting, but not sure if its worthy of investment at the moment or not
Hi Ace, Appreciate if you can enlighten me on a couple of querries about Cupid.
1) Pricing power of the company, If the rubber prices start going up will they be able to transfer that to customers/ UN ( since they have long term contract with UN) & do you think they can atleast maintain current NPM around 12%
2) Do you think,with the UN contract & penetration outside india market can they sustain 30-50% sales & profit growth atleast for next 3 years?
Thanks
1. They get the contract through competitive bidding process and they have certain variables to take care of this, but beyond that if “during” the contract service the prices fluctuate, thats beyond their reach, which is understandable. They DO NOT have long term contracts. I am not sure if i followed you on long term contracts. Also, NPM as mentioned in stock story is variable of lot of things, and to be honest NPM of 12% is really excellent, To be honest, i would be happy even with 8-9% but 10%+ they can do it seems
2. Looks like, management is motivated.
Thanks Ace! God bless you !
Dear Ace
Aro Granite – Inventories , Debtors and Loan & Advances continuously every year , is this not the matter of worry , Please clarify.
A Bangad
Dear Ace
Aro Granite – Inventories , Debtors and Loan & Advances continuously increasing every year , is this not the matter of worry , Please clarify.
A Bangad
just replied
other than debtors i am not worried about other two in the long term
Ace sir,plz ur views about EON ELECTRIC n NATURAL CAPSULES…
eon still not convinced. natural capsules is under research to see the growth trigger.
aceji- do u track lactose(I),it has tie up with kerry group for food ingrideants.i want to know ur views about this.
i know and that led me to take note of it, but nothing much has happened so far…lets see in future
hello ace
what r u expecting bottomline and topline of cupid this quarter against last quarter??…..do u think they vl beat last quarter result??…
lets not focus on quarters only, thats a sure shot recipie for disaster because if this quarter is bad and you exit, and the next two quarters are very good, you will have a huge opportunity cost. That would hurt. Having said that cupid has good order visibility so this quarter should be very good too. God Bless and Best of luck with your investment.
Hi. Ace. I have some stocks in my portfolio:
600 – Bilcare @ 88/-
200 – Blue Star Infotech @125/-
600 – Gujarat Borosil @ 20/-
500 – Haldyn Glass @ 23/-
250 – Indraprastha Med. @ 55/-
1000 – Morepen Lab. @ 13/-
1000 – Nitco @ 15/-
150. – Multibase India @ 70/-
200 – Sintex. @ 75/-
Could you please share your valuable suggestions /views on holding of above shares for making a concentrated portfolio.
Thanks. with regards,
bilcare not interested at this moment. blue star is ok, gujarat borosil, still not convinced and ditto for haldyn. indrapastha not interested …morepen still under research and so far not convinced. nitco great brand ,but upside capped because of what it is going through. multibase not strictly tracking. sintex is good brand but follow it closely.
Thanks ace for ur reply
i m holding big quantity of cupid and freshtrop….i feel angry wen some one criticize u…i know the best answer to ur critics is appreciation of ur stocks in longterm…
there’s nothing called as “my stock”. I present stock stories and if readers are convinced then they know what to do. If you are invested in the companies then its your company now. You own a part of business, be furious about your business and keep evaluating y our business.. ask questions to people who are running your business and keep them accountable. Start owning up your businesses now 🙂 …. and the first step towards that is to start referring to those equities as your own stocks 🙂 …God bless
well said…..can u give current order book of cupi???
you can aggregate from what orders they have received so far, in the annoucements sections. Not sure but i think its around 17 cr of just export orders alone….this would keep on increasing during the year.
Why you are not sure about order book .While recommending cupid you said you have contacted with company.If you never asked about their order book what analyst you are ?
complete order book was around 15 cr + 2.4 cr which they got recently. I also got the same reply from the m anagement which is the right way to look at it. they disclose everything so why not aggregate it. Investing and making money is not for lazy
ace- ur view in sudar industries&bodal chem.
dont like sudar, but bodal is average.
Sunidhi Securities gave a buy call on Sudar . I bought some as well . Can you tell me why Sudar is not good Sir ? It’s rising daily since then .
i do not like the pedigree of stock. If you are convinced you can take a plunge.
Hi Ace,
What do you think about Talwalkars? Only listed entity in fitness business with good brand equity.
regards
yea its nice defensive pick
Any news you are aware that caplin is falling??
nops.
Hi Ace,
Whats your top picks in Pharma and IT at this point considering the valuations and the run ups?
Thank you!
Regards,
Niranjan
whatever i feel confident about i have already listed
hello ace
sorry to disturb u again…
u told for freshtrop that it will b strong above 65….but it fall down to 60…so technically its weak now??!..whts ur view
dont get too much into technicals. yes above 65 is better and its already given a closing above it. its fine in my books so far. But technicals is dictated by fundamentals and try to take downside in your stride
ace- what is ur view in sudar& bodalchem.
already replied
Ace , what do you think of Superhouse ?
nothing great
Hi Ace
What do you think about Talwalkars? Only listed player in fitness business in growing market
already replied. its good.
Hi Ace, Do you track Unity Infra
yes.
Any advice… would you like to share
well, nothing in the company that would make me buy it at the moment.
Hi Ace, Is there any businees difference between Aro Granite and Asian granito …..Asian sells tiles too which has a branding advantage. Does Aro sell tiles or only granites..
aro exports granite tiles and does not have a brand. but asain has a brand, and brand will always be a huge advantage “if” and “only if” brand is backed by growth. without growth everything else is a waste. If someone is so desperate to buy a growth less company then why asian granito why not nitco? nitco is better brand power than asian. But market pays for growth and pays more for consistent growth.
Very Well said.
By Tiles I meant floor tiles and wall tiles. These products have great consumption demands and also account for maintenance.
On the other hand Granites slabs are used only for kitchen counters or other counters. Granite are very strong and they do not need regular maintenance. It is more of a one time purchase kind of .
So I think a tile company has a better opportunity then the granite company. Let me come back to my question – Does Aro Granite manufacture Granite + tiles or only Granites.
thanks
see, it manufactures granite slabs and granite tiles. but not ceramic tiles. Aro does only export as on date so demand is not a problem (even replacement demand) and its scalable (just keep exporting in different markets) and this point not everyone is getting. Asian has no growth so far, so for me personally i am biased towards growth. Big bazaar is bigger brand, but compare future’s stock price movement with V2 Retails. V2 is hardly a brand as of now, but still stock price appreciation is much better in V2 because its growing faster. Even Future compared with v-mart if you compare the stock price appreciation is directly propotional to growth. I hope you are getting my sense of investment direction, but its my own style , everyone should choose his/her own style. You look more convinced with Asian, so better go with your own convinction
Not really, its not that I am more convinced with Asian. Actually I have both … I have purchased Aro at 54 based on my own research and Asian was a borrowed idea …
But now I want to hold only one of them …so was curious to know ur views.
thanks Again
oh ok.
Ace, Do you think Sharp India can be bought now!
only if you yourself are convinced. This quarter’s growth may not be that great as it would be just TV sales. You could also wait till the results are out and see if there’s no loss this time around.
Superb! I will wait till results.
Hi ACE, your views on RatnaMani Metals and Nitin Fire? also, SML Isuzu which i missed around 300 bucks ,is it still worth buy at cmp 770?
ratnamani not interested, nitin fire do not track. I like SML.
Ok. But di you like at cmp 770 or should wait for correction??
pls take your own call, it may or may not correct a bit but its a very good long term story
Hi Ace
I really appreciate your work despite what some people think. Your stock recommendations are backed by research and reasoning.
I read your opinion on Ybrant. The stock has appreciated tremendously. Do you think it could be because the market is discounting their forward earnings post their recent acquisition. The ROIC seems to be higher than the cost of capital. Digital marketing does have a bright future and is expected to grow at a fast rate.
if the markets are discounting its forward earnings then previous earnings should not matter and therefore, ROIC does not matter as its based on historical earnings. Yes digital marketing is good area. By the way i normally use RoCE for software business, although i do not give too much emphasis on ratios as they are based on historical earnings and companies that are turning around will more often than not have useless ratios 🙂
Thanks for the reply. I meant ROIC from acquisition. I have not invested in the stock myself however it does remind of the trend that pentaloon followed in the bull run from 2003 to 08. They were making negative cash flows , taking debt yet the stock appreciated coz of its future earnings before obviously tumbling down.
ok.
Dear Ace,
What is your opinion on Munjal Showa ?
its average.
Sir, Do you have any update from Cupid AGM which was held on Sep 27 ?
nothing as yet.
Kopran : Your views on prospects of Kopran please
wait for some time for fresh exposure
Thankyou so much
Hi Ace, you mean wait till price gets corrected or we need to wait to see its performance?
wait for performance, price is fine.
kindly share your views on Rane brake lining and dynemic products
rane nothing great…dynemic already explained.
sir searching option not shown result of dynemic
dynemic products is fine. Also, try to use google to search specific website, its the best search tool.e.g. in the search box you can write -> “search item” site:
ok. thanks for prompt reply 🙂
Hi ace what’s your view on electro steel casting cmp 21?
dont like it
Hi ace what’s your view on electro steelcasting
already replied.
For some strange reason, comments are not published in sequential manner. Difficult to locate the new comments and replies. May be wordpress issue?
yes i agree. Even i am confused. This is a big big bug in wordpress. I have also seen my reply to one comment finally getting displayed under some other comment’s reply. This is so mis-leading, i am seriously thinking about building my own site, but there’s hardly any time to do it …
ace bhai ,of all you recommendations i think cupid is the least risky one. but please clear some of my doubts if u have time
1 why the export is not happening to US if they are already prequalified to do so,
2 don’t you think they wil land in big trouble if they cant renew their agreement with UNFPA,
3 Why they are not HAVING much presence in indian market
4 (last year entire performance of the company got hit just because they didn’t get an order from GOI) dont u think such over dependance is a case for worry
4 what u think wil act as a trigger for the pe re-reating , will it happen just because of increased sales which is overdependent on a few consumers
1. Not sure the intent so asking again, why should they export to US?
2. Yes, and that couple of years away, but normally, once you qualify for UNFPA, until and unless the company does something really crazy, they renew agreement.
3. They are getting excellent margins in export market and thats why their emphasis on indian market is not huge. But they plan to very slowly start using the cash to do some branding moving forward, but their main criteria is first to make company flush with cash.
4. Yes and thats why investors were shunting it away, but now with UNFPA, the delay and unpredictability hardly exists. UNFPA works with tight and strict deadlines.
5. Trigger is debt free status, dividend that could come, excellent and honest management and above all, growth along with very less reliance on GOI, and its indian customers, cipla and dkt. Also, as company grows its credibility with UNFPA, the order size and contract durations are going to increase. So now the customer base is huge because of UNFPA (customers are different countries).
Congratulations on asking yourself these questions. God Bless and Best of luck with your investment
ace bhai
today i got my investments double in cupid .huge returns in just one month( i bought 5k shares)
thank u so much
manoj
Great, God Bless 🙂
Good morning Ace sir,
Wts ur views on Capital First.I see huge upside in this script.. Do you?
Plz throw some light…
i like capital first. already mentioned it some time back.
Sir I like 👍 ur recommendations a lot… Please comment on my stocks sir
1. Sanghi industries
2. Munjal Auto
3. Cupid ltd
4. Aimco pesticides
5.Ifgl Refractory
Sir if u don’t mind….please comment on short term and long term views on above stocks and one thing please don’t mention that I am not tracking…i eagerly require your suggestion
5. Ifgl refractory
1. sanghi is interesting but not very convincing.
2. munjal is fine.
3. cupid obviously i like a lot
4. aimco obviously i like a lot
5. ifgl is ok at these prices
views are views, shrt term or long term both views are same, but first do own research and then only decide on investment.
Sir I bought freshtrop @ Rs.66 and ifgl @ Rs 214 please comment
comment what ?
Comment it means can I hold that stocks or not since it was decreasing everyday
small caps are volatile and they would remain so. If one is convinced that its a great buy market movements should not worry investors.
Please reply me….. Can I hold freshtrop and ifgl asper ur opninion
if you are not convinced then what is the point of holding. a little bit of downside is very normal and if you cannot take it then what can anyone comment. are you convinced about freshtrop (ifgl is not my recommendation so pls use your own decision)?
Sir I am totally convinced on freshtrop ….. But what about ifgl…..i am little bit confused on ifgl… Please solve my problem
if you are confused about anything then you are not convinced, so that answers you
Hi Ace,
Your views on Indian Hume Pipes.
Thanks
IHP is ok, just be very sure before investing.
Ace Sir, can you please reply which among the below stocks are good bets? I understand that this list is really long but many of your readers would be having the same doubts, so it will be helpful for them. Hope you don’t mind.
1. Caplin Point Laboratories
2. Control Print
3. Excel Industries
4. Lanco Industries
5. Lumax Technologies
6. Manjushree Technopack
7. MM Forging Limited
8. Mold Tek Packaging
9. Munjal Showa
10. Nile
11. Oriental Carbon and Chemicals
12. Patels Airtemp
13. Polyplex
14. RS Software
15. Samkrg Pistons and Rings
16. Sequent
17. SMS Pharmaceuticals
18. Talbros Auto
19. TV Today
20. Waterbase
21. Natural Capsules
22. Asian Granito
most of the stocks already answered, please narrow down the list accordingly.
Sir please how to calculate that the current price of the stock is under valued … Please tell the formulae for calculating
there is no such formula. Absolutely no such formula exist. stocks are either under valued or over valued and unfortunately no-one can tell the quantum of it. I am curious to know who told you such formula existed 🙂
Sir please tell me how we can decide that the stock is under valued or over valued on what factors we can decide …..i need ur opinion
thats the art you learn with time experience and analysis past winners. See and read AR about hawkins, symphony, la-opaLA, kajaria, and ofcourse PAGE and eicher, you will understand what makes stock prices move. First understand if you are more interested in turnaround stories and already established stories and this depends upon your risk apetite. if already established stories use cash flow analysis and ratios and earnings potential. if turnaround then research what will trigger the earnings rebound and profits for the stocks.
Ace ji, looks like Capri Global (money Matters) turning around after massive blow in 2010..taken over by US real estate firm, holding 50%+, total promotor holding reached to 74%…trading at cheap valuations..0.6 times of book value…P/E ratio of close to7…Debt free..no pledging…
however, caash flows are in -ve..but improving….and other concern is sector…
Any thoughts here?
It may go up 100 times, I still would not buy it. Lost confidence in it. There are better scripts available, why this..
hi whats ur view on panchsheel organics
under research…
Hi Ace,
What are your views on Lycos as a product which ybrant digital is now promoting. Since you mentioned you belong the same space, would love to have your say n this…
same space as in software. I am not very confident of lycos.
Would be you be kind to share your reasons why you are not confident on lycos…i’ve seen some interview of Mr Suresh Reddy and i think this man knows what he’s doing…..
first of all market cap is way too huge, secondly market havent seen the performance of the product so far, still lot of is being discounted. Third, somehow i am not getting convinced. I could be wrong, make no mistake about it. So if you are convinced, go on, but i will not 🙂
Dear AceIT , Shriram City Union finance Vs Capital first . Which one will you prefer for a long term investment ?
both are good to be honest.
Thanks dear for the quick and prompt reply.
It seems your intention is only to defeat the famous blogger valuepick .Otherwise why you are still keeping message against that blogger at the end which posted on 27th and posted every messaged dated after that message before that message. This is cheap professional jealousy .
against who blogger? i am also keeping messages which are posted against me. God bless.
hahahahaha.. ace, some comments are hilarious boss.. you should ignore such comments honestly
Dear dharin,
Both bloggers are very good and different. Some worship god shiva, some worship vishno. So stay with whom u like more but don’t criticise others… Also vp never publish any negative comments against him whereas ace will face all questions thrown at him. Still I would say both are very good…
rahul, you are using big metaphors. Let Gods be god. First of all i do not go to forms and other blogs, have told so many times and secondly i do not understand what “professional rivalry” the gentleman is talking about? Every blogger, i am sure tries his/her best to help others and its sad to see people interpret everything negatively. Anyways, may god give everyone peace of mind.
Dear Dharin,
this is what I also say, why unnecessarily peoples are comparing .
When peoples are not able to make money they do all these brawl .
Both are good are at their own place and they will not be knowing each other since both of them are busy in earning and helping small investors .
So better to ignore such elements and lets concentrate of earning money and contributing towards community .
Thanks & Regards,
Prashant
What is your view on shilpi cable technology
already mentioned.
Hi Buddy, Coral labs appears good on technicals. Can you share if you have any info on its management and future prospects.
Thanks
still under investigation
hi ace ,
Rubber price has nose dived to 95/kg .How much of a positive impact will it have on liberty shoes raw material cost and can we expect the benefits to incur during this quarter ?
it would depend on the inventory also, so its possible that we may see some spill over effect next quarter. Dont get too focused on each quarter’s number, try to have a FY view, will help you not to move out of stock before maturity.
Do you feel at this junction liberty has brand visibility like that of bata ?
I stay in bangalore and I have seen liberty stores are mostly empty and are not in the prime locations .In my opinion liberty should focus on brand rebuilding and advertisements
I agree with your view.actually liberty has very recently entered south markets. Liberty, historically has been mostly a north india brand, and this is where the scope lies in expansion. Most of their revenues from from North India.
hi ace ,
Rubber price has nose dived to 95/kg .How much of a positive impact will it have on liberty shoes raw material cost and can we expect the benefits to incur during this quarter ?
already replied
Hello Ace, Your view on stylam industries
do not like stylam it at all. would prefer aro any day.
hi ace ,
Rubber price has nose dived to 95/kg .How much of a positive impact will it have on liberty shoes raw material cost and can we expect the benefits to incur during this quarter
Dear ace whats your view on momai appariels ltd IPO , which is likely to join into ashapura intimates fashion ltd.
not positive.
Dear Ace,
You are really doing an awesome work..god bless you..i would like to ask you few things about – Huhtamaki PPL, Aegis Logistics and AVT Natural but all of my investments are down by 15-18%..just wanted to ask your expert views in case you can suggest me to hold or book loss and shift to some other stock..one disclosure – all these stocks are backed by my own analysis – promoters are increasing their stake in Huhtamaki so chances of delisting are very high…in Aegis – the value unlocking can happen once their deal to sell 40% of singapore subsidy..and in AVT, their results are great year after year..a long term growth story…all my research will be of some use if you can comment with your views..thanks..!!!
aegis is good and so is avt, but these are slow movers so they may sometime frustrate , but overall good picks. PPL, just a delisting trigger is not good enough.https://widgets.wp.com/notes/?v=20140729a#
Thanks Ace 🙂 now i have a reason to hold them 🙂 🙂
Hi ace,
Am holding suzlon @ 15 in large nos. Due to fccb shares hitting the market its on LC continously and will probable go lower. I am very much convinced on its turnaround next FY. I am tempted to buy more at these prices but dont want it to be an emotional decision. Should I rather invest in other stocks ??
i would have never bought into suzlon at the first place. with more and more equity dilution, the market cap increases and EPS decreases, its a double whammy.
Hi Ace…Do you see any potential in GTL in the long run?
no
gud morng ace
any update of cupid agm??
nops.
ace ur view in microsec fin
do not like it very much
ace microsec is good buy?
not in my boo;ks
Dear Ace…I have just purchased 600 Aro granite @ 78.30…lets see how it multiplies in long run 🙂
ace what is ur view in maricokaya
very good on declines
Ace, do you have any of idea of granite mining scam and involvement of Aro in it?
as per aro they are not involved and they said more than that is subjudice. we cannot paint everyone with the same picture, lets wait for the verdict.
Also , ARO does not own any granite mines man, its procures its mines from various parts of TN, Karnataka among others. Secondly, the scam as far i know was “suspected to happen” in madhuri (if my memory serves me right), not hosur where its “processing” operations are based. So lets not create rumor by saying ARO might be involved. These are sometimes tricks by people to get into good companies
wow ace!!!freshtrop on uc,congrats.
Ace Investor Ji – Your view on Duke Offshore
average…
congrats ace,freshtrop on uc
🙂 congrats to all those investors
cupid aimco v2 and waterbase freshtrop all r in uc today…..ur critics got some answer..god bless ace..
live long life…
god bless everyone. Best of luck with your investments brother. Remember there could be some downdays when the conviction is tested, but if you’re sure of the stocks, in the long run you “will” make money. God Bless
dear aceinvestortrader today was AGM day for Liberty shoes .Any updates on restructuring/or any new news in the above counter .I am holding 500 shares @ 322.
Ur views will be highly appreciated.
regards
sanjeev jain
i did not attend AGM. As per the AR the re-structuring is obviously on..dont worry
Dear Ace,I hold very huge quantity of Indosolar and holding it for last couple of years(It’s into solar PV manufacturing.My cost is arounf Rs. ,currently Indosolar is at 6.10.Kindly suggest
its got huge debt…huge problem will take a lot of time
hello ace
any news on freshtrop rising 20%??…and which date its quarterly result is coming…
result date will be announced on the exchange.
Hi,
Can you please tell me your view on panasonic energy india company, though it has run up 4 fold in past 1 year, fundamentals are looking good, what is your view on this.
Thanks,
Sri
do not track
hi ACE,
Read previous views on ARO and ASIAN, and rightly said that ARO’s profits are growing.But why is ASIAN running and not ARO 😦
aro already has run around 17% in two days. the stocks do not go up everydays. The stocks are not to be traded like this. Its important that you yourself are convinced before investing
Hi Ace,
Any Comment on Vikram thermo. Seems to be in a new segment all together with very less competition but the question is how far the product can grow ?
Thanks
under watch list, but the research hasnt been able to take off on this one, these kind of stocks needs very very careful digging.
sir, your views on Rubfila international…can softening rubber prices do wonders for this zero debt company
possible.
Hi Ace,
What’s your view about NCC Rights @ Rs. 20 ?…Whether IMHO suggest to subscribe to rights ?. If yes, whether to invest in rights by selling Original holdings ? What’s your suggestion ?
regards
not interested in NCC
Hi Ace,
Do you suggest to invest in Kitex at the current level ?
regards
i am not a fan of kitex.
ace ji
do u know about the capacity utilization of cupid .can they handle big orders without further expansion?
yes, they can.
serene, they did not have any effect. because it also get lot of raw material from other parts of TN, Karnataka amd most of the raw material is imported. Please read the stock story in more detail about the natural hedge that i have written, also understand the business in more detail to understand what kind of news impact business. Also, no links please.
Thanks for Reply,
What about view on this Stocks..
Gujarat Industries Power Co
KCP Sugar and Industries
MUKAND LTD
mukund is average, do not feel excited about the other two
aceji -today finally got some qty in orient bev cani buymore @this level
i like the company and what they are doing
thanks for the compliments.
One of the big shareholder Dilip Kumar Lakhi is selling Aro granite in open market since yesterday. Doesn’t look like a threat but just thought of bringing this to the forum’s notice.
thats fine should improve liquidity. Everyone is here to make money and if somebody is selling at life time highs you cannot blame them 🙂
Sir,
Your view on gm breweries.
breweries is a difficult business and problem is that i am unable to find ethical management in this business ….i hope you are getting what i am trying to explain here
Dear…..at the moment ARo is running almost at 100% capacity…..no expansion is reported in the latest Annual report…..how is then its going to snatch the growth in top line and for that reason in the bottom line during next two to three years…?
its running close to 85% utilization on two plant, as per last quarter and should run close to 100%, but last FY the entire expansion was not in play, so this year its going to happen.plus the third plant is not running anywhere close to even 50%. also management is cognizance of this fact and in due time they would let shareholders know about the future growth areas.
Hi Ace,
Any updates post result ?
regards
already posted my views