possible, but not very focussed on technicals also. After this quarter’s possible misadventure from next quarter the results are going to be great…so not worried
this quarter, inventories would play spoil sport, and those inventories would be exahusted by mid this quarter and with the low input prices the new inventory would have much better margins.
dont know but its not harmful to be prepared, but its equally possible that it turns out the other way round and this decline is in anticipation of that and if there’s better results, it could spike up.
While we were invested first time in prima. We were positive on the business as a whole against rising crude oil prices. Then why should there be weak numbers. And if raw materials cost comes down will not they pass down to dealers. And how long can crude sustain at this prices?
that’s because of high cost of inventory. when the raw material prices goes down its quite possible that to clear the inventory some discounts are given. So, its possible inventory could create trouble but again pls understand its not necessary but we should be prepared for high cost inventory playing spoil sport. also, its not something confined to prima its just pure business dynamics and precisely for this reason the next quarters would quite possibly be great. Also, understand that since mid nov the prices are down so already the new inventory is costing 30% lower … so now we know this year’s consolidated numbers would be very good, but imagine the consolidated numbers next year where the full benefit of lower raw material prices would reflect in the overseas subsidiary’s number where the margins are already so high. this crude prices would stay at the levels of 40-65 levels is my hope.but then again its all theory and its not bad to be prepared for this because logically it might happen
Dear Ace
Last couple of weeks, only large cap is performing and small cap stocks are tanking though few stock specific action is going on. Overall broader market is not performing. Is there any reason behind this?
Dear Ace,
Your view on Emmbi Industries ? You had given comment “under research” to a query from one of the readers a couple of months back. Any updates ?
Hi Ace,
In auto ancillary sector other than simmonds which among the following do you think has better prospects? 1) JBM Auto 2) Lumax Auto 3) Samkrg pistons 4) Munjal Auto.
Hi Ace,
Rajoo is continuously falling even after such good results…any bad news or just consolidation is haaping? also what is the support level as per cmp.
thanks in advance
hi
any views on unitech, for past few week continuous block deals are being done. I know U don’t Like the stock but there has been lot of block deals and “Mayfair Capital” is continuously giving trade related dis-closures to sebi. I humbly request to have a look if possible
Just wanted to share the below article I read a few days back on Sahyadri for the benefit of other readers .
Two lakh Cemply Swachalay installation targeted by March 2016
Press Trust of India | Coimbatore January 23, 2015 Last Updated at 15:25 IST
Sahyadri Industries Ltd (SIL), who has launched ‘Cemply Swachalay’, a do it yourself latrine, is targeting to install two lakh toilet blocks across the country by the end of next financial year, a top company official said today.
The company, which has launched the green toilets, as part of Prime Minister’s Swachh Bharati Mission, has installed nearly 2,000 Swachalays in Maharashtra and Gujarat, M Satyanarayanan, President (Sales and Marketing), SIL, told PTI.
On target, Satyanarayana said that the company, which has already launched this toilets in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and also Tamil Nadu, wanted to install two lakh toilets by 2016 March.
The company is confident to install 15,000 toilets by March 2015, Satyanarayana, here to launch the products, said.
Stating that toilets ranging from rs. 18,000 to rs.35,000 and can be built in villages under various National, State and Local self government initiated schemes, with a subsidy of rs12,000, he said though water was a major cause of concern, SIL was willing to provide a water tap, if the local bodies link the area with pipeline.
When asked about coordinating with NGOs or Corporates in constructing toilets in schools, both in rural and urban areas, he said that the company has already initiated one such project in Pune.
If any Corporates or big companies come forward under its Corporate Social Responsibility, SIL would extend all help for installing such toilets, he said, it was also ready to assist National and State highways departments to install toilets.
The company, with six manufacturing units, has the capacity of mass production, speedy logistics and installation, which can be done in any terrain of little resources like tribal, hilly areas, tourist spots, forts and also residential and school premises.
SIL is selected for Best Innovation Award, which will be presented during the India CSR Summit, to be held at Delhi on February six, Satyanarayana said.
Going by the article we could be looking at 20cr additional revenue for the next quarter and around 300cr additional revenue for next FY just from this new product. From your interactions with the management do you think they will be able to achieve such an ambitious target?
I sent out an email to investor mail contact given by Prima but dint get any response.
Since you have had discussions with the promoters of prima, I wanted to know your take on them? Do they come across as “Fire in the belly” kinds? coz that’s one thing which is very important in my opinion if this were to be a part of core holdings or it becoming a Midcap/ Largecap one day.
At this point Prima is an opportunistic bet for me for next 1-2 years as I feel its mispriced.
most multibaggers start from being an under-appreciated bet.. the management is conservative here. they want to chase growth but not at any cost. interesting point to note is that their growth (plastic division) in last 8-9 yrs is better than nilkamal (plastic division) albeit on smaller base, but then nilkamal started way earlier too.
Ace investor ji….great work and help to small investors….Please let us have your views on Control Print co….have been growing topline n bottom line quite decently over last 5 years or so . Thanks in advance.
Dear Ace,
I had a conversation with Prima.I was told though the r/m prices are down by 30%,their selling prices have also come down by 15%,which totally negates the fall in raw material price.So the numbers may not be rosy going forward coz of fall in sales as anticipated.
how? where is the difference of 15% going, that’s coming in bottomline. if the fall in raw material is equal to price reduced then we are not gaining anything, but if there’s a difference of 15% that’s huge. especially for overseas subsidiary the absolute amount is great. this itself adds around 5rs to the bottomline and this considering no growth and no further reduction in raw material prices. also, if i consider some increase in raw material prices, we will get an excellent consolidated numbers for next year as well. By the way, who said there would be fall is sales, or is it your own conclusion. the company has grown topline in the worst of cases, and why do you think the selling price was cut? it was cut to arrest any downfall in sales.
I guess if they were able to pull off good performance during all those high cost period along with div and good cagr, it should be easy for them to deliver good results. Also management quality seems to be impeccable from their history. Now prima has become a story where lot many retail investors have pinned huge hopes. Keeping fingers crossed. Waiting for hope turning to reality.
thats rig ht. and the hopes are for all the right reasons IMHO. over analysis is always detrimental … it pays a lot to keep it simple. its good to be cautious but its even better to be realistic. remember between a great company and a great stock, the latter always pays. we are debating if prima is a great company or not but that’s irrelevant, because we know its a great stock.
Raw material cost will be only part of their overall cost. If raw material cost is down by 30% and company wants to pass on complete benefit to the customers, they won’t be able to reduce the finished product price by 30%. The 15% reduction in sale price most likely negate the benefit of reduction of raw material. However, it helps in higher volumes, which in turn helps in margin growth.
Dear Ace
Can IPCA lab be bought at current level for long term like 2-3 years for good gains .Same with Reliance industries ,your valued opinion will be highly appreciated.
regards
Dear Ace,
The prices were cut to align with the market.And the savings due to reduction of 25-30% in raw material is offset by reduction of 15% in sale price as r/m constitutes around 50% of the sales.
exactly…so even if the prices are reduced by 15% the raw material prices going down by 30% (i am told its precisely 30% as of now) does give the business ample amount of headroom on the bottomline. and this quantum of price reduction that you are talking about is done only for domestic business not for their subsidiary.
There is lots of hoe in prima. Like me many small retail investors are badly waiting for results of prima. Even though this result may not be in line with expectations i believe that future is super so i am invested in it and add more on monday. Between ace sir any idea whn is the results of prima. Sir also request u to pls update on results of freshtrop ambika cotton (results are today) n vidhi. thanks
Rohit, If what you said is correct, there won’t be any benefit because of reduction in raw material. However, if they can increase their volumes, it should help in increasing margins.
rohit’s figures need explanation because he’s taken a much higher sale of 85cr (which should be close to 73cr) while maintaining the raw material cost as 48cr.
Sir,
Could you please let us know about the stock which you were planning to suggest and then the reasons due to which, you decided not to. It would help us in analyzing the stocks, going forward.
Sorry,I have not understood as to how there’s headroom in bottomline.As r/m savings is 100% offset by reduction in sale price…can you also tell me what’s the % share Prima holds in ‘Prima -Delite’.
Let me try to explain you with an example what Ace is trying to say. Based on last 3 qaurters ram material percentage to sales is 67%. So assuming sales is Rs 100 raw material cost is Rs 67. Now since raw material has fallen by 30%, it brings down raw material cost to Rs (67 – (67*0.3%)) = Rs 47. Sale price having fallen down by 15%, brings down the sale price to (100 – (100*0.15%) = Rs 85. So net-net if you see there is an expansion in earning of (85-47) – (100-67) = Rs5 from the earlier scenario to current scenario.
Now, this is just an illustration. Actuals may vary. Especially it may not reflect this qaurter. It will most probably reflect in Q4 or Q1 FY16. Moreover, as ace mentions it may not be the same for the Cameroon Jv where Prima might be selling at a premium. Hope this helps.
Dear Akshay,
Thnx for the explanation.The raw material cost (which was Rs. 48 crores in 2014) on sales of I think around 85 crores.So ,if we take 27% reduction in r/m (as transportation cost is fixed) ,it comes to Rs.12.96 crs ,whereas ,the reduction in revenue comes to Rs. 12.75 crores.So there’ hardly any arbitrage benefit in that sense .
rohit, why are you taking such high sale of 85cr? for your calculation but raw material cost as 48cr? remember businessses are run to grow and make more money. can you explain me the basis of your figures because that is creating a wrong impression
But how did you arrive to raw material cost of rs 48cr. As per the AR cost of material and components consumed is 52.42cr and purchase of stock in trade is 2.49cr. Sales is 86.27cr less excise duty 6.81cr = 79.45cr. If we divide (52.42+2.49)=54.91 by 79.45, we get 69.11%. I am not sure if change in inventories is also considered in raw material cost. If it is then raw material cost gets reduced by 3.08cr. Even then raw material cost as percentage of sales is 65%. What you said would hold true if raw material cost was 50% or lower to sales.
Please note that excise duty cannot be a part of sales as raw material cost is also exclusive of excise duty. Moreover these figures are only on standalone basis. Consolidated figures may vary. Please correct me if I am wrong in my calculations.
saw the numbers, it decent. nothing to worry, these kinds of businesses dont need active tracking. as expected it looks raw material prices easing is going to help. no need to worry here. its a wonderfully run company
I hold V2 Retail and have been trying to contact the CS Dheeraj Mishra since the last few days at 3231 6262 but it has been off. This is the only number provided for the head office at Delhi. I had also sent a mail asking for a contact number but have not received a reply since a week. I’ve been dialing the mobile number of the managers of each store to see if they can help out but they don’t have any other number!?
The deal is if you check the V2 website (about section), they have boldly stated that they expect to clock 300 crore revenue this FY (the entire website and content has been revamped recently). In September Mr. Agarwal said that he is aiming for 270-280 cr revenue with 9 crore profit, it seems like he is on track . Also, they plan to open more stores which will add 50 crore revenue per month (about section). So, theoretically we’re looking at revenues of 1000 crore for next FY which is insane !!
I have personally checked out the V2 retail store in Jamshedpur and must say they stocked everything possible during Winter with the range being very very affordable. Also, they were making use of every available inch of space !
Now, I really want to know how these guys are going to resolve the sales tax dispute because if they lose, its game over completely. but since they’re so optimistic trying to figure out a franchise model and giving such aggressive targets, it seems like they know its going to go in their favor (whenever it does, which God knows when) . But its very hard to digest that they will be left off the hook so easily.
I REALLY want to speak to the CS to understand what their strategy is because if they know things will be fine, we have a real winner on our hands already. Automatically, PE rerating will be much quicker if this headache goes away. PE rerating + massive EPS expansion, and we have a monster in the making !!
Would appreciate if anyone can help get in touch with him. Thanks
court case cant go on forever and we must realise that there have been lot of summons/hearings without any conclusion. so, these guys must be going to court again and again to defend their case and must be getting repeated re-hearings.
we need to figure out whats happening exactly on the ground. i fear that day when therere will be an announcement on the exchange stating that weve lost the case !!
How are u Chirag bhai? Seeing a post from you after sometime. Also check out new facebook page “V2 Retail Limited”. They also seemed to have started a new blog called v2kart – search for “V2 Kart Fashion” in google
Avanti feeds has came with good set of numbers. Exports are marginally down but domestic sales has grown approx 68 % yoy.net profit up nearly 50% yoy.
What do you expect from water base. Will they grow as same pace of avanti feeds.
the last point on slide 2 mentions that V2 management is expecting tremendous growth in last 6 months of this Financial year. Really looking forward to numbers on Feb 5!
विशाल मेगामार्ट का कारोबार
=> कंपनी की कुल तीन सब्सिडियरी VRL मूवर, VRL रिटेल और VRL इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर है।
=> कंपनी के पोर्टफोलियो में अभी करीब 70000 प्रोडक्ट हैं।
=> 2013 के मुकाबले 2014 में कंपनी की आय 105 करोड़ से बढ़कर 228 करोड़ रुपए रही है।
=> मार्च 2009 तक देश में कंपनी के कुल 182 स्टोर थे।
=> मैनेजमेंट को दूसरी छमाही में जोरदार ग्रोथ की उम्मीद लगा रही है।
Thanks Ace for fixing the broken link, my bad. One suggestion, if you feel any of your past recommendations is still a value buy, may be you can have a post with a “Re-iterate Buy” rather than coming up with a new idea everytime, just a suggestion. Stocks like waterbase, prima, v2, etc
sir , what is wrong with rs software i bought it at 150 levels and the stocks has cracked below 200 what is the future of the cpmpany and supports levels to buy more
sir , what is wrong with rs software i bought it at 255 levels and the stocks has cracked below 200 what is the future of the cpmpany and supports levels to buy more
Dear ACE,
I went through Prima Plastics annual reports and found all parameters doing well on balance sheet but only problem i found was cash flow from operating activities. Constantly it is not able to catch up with net profit. Do you see a concern here?
till waiting tomarrow ????
No issues sir.
Dear Aceji.
Take your own time.
Respect!
No problems bro. Will wait till you are comfortable
Hi Ace,
Ok, No problem……..
;-)…np
Not at all a Problem sir
Hi Ace…Your views on zen technologies pls?
no change in views
Hi ace..prima broke its support level at 62..more correction expected?
possible, but not very focussed on technicals also. After this quarter’s possible misadventure from next quarter the results are going to be great…so not worried
Are you expecting weak numbers from prima for this quarter
yes its possible
are you expecting weak qtly numbers this time around. how are you so sure from next quarter results will be good.
this quarter, inventories would play spoil sport, and those inventories would be exahusted by mid this quarter and with the low input prices the new inventory would have much better margins.
I was expecting this quarter to be excellent due to sale of loss making unit.
sale has not yet happened as mentioned in the bse annoucement.
So we have to brace for a further fall in Prima price..lets wait till reaches its bottom.
dont know but its not harmful to be prepared, but its equally possible that it turns out the other way round and this decline is in anticipation of that and if there’s better results, it could spike up.
Sir,
PNB Guilt has posted good quarterly numbers.
Your view on this will be helpful.
Thanks.
sorry not tracking
Hi Ace
Your Views on SKS Micro finance after its result and also Announcement for applying small Bank Licence….
very positive
ACE can SKS be compared with Armaan fin, also ur view on Armaan plz
sks is way bigger than armaan and sks is very diverse.
well is there a problem with you or the market, i hope its the second.
I appreciate ur thought of recommending 100% comfortable for u, take ur own time to research and post
Hi Ace,
I am surprised by the fact that after Rajoo Engineers result which was great!, the stock is sliding down! what is the rationale behind it?
no idea. markets are not always rational but not worried here
What do you think about coal india OFS?
not interestedin coal india
ACE do u track MINDA industries and MINDA corp
already given my views on minda… kindly search the blog
Hi Ace,
Whats your views on Shri Hari Chemical Exports? Numbers look fantastic….
Regards,
Niranjan
the product prices are on a downswing so future could be bleak
While we were invested first time in prima. We were positive on the business as a whole against rising crude oil prices. Then why should there be weak numbers. And if raw materials cost comes down will not they pass down to dealers. And how long can crude sustain at this prices?
that’s because of high cost of inventory. when the raw material prices goes down its quite possible that to clear the inventory some discounts are given. So, its possible inventory could create trouble but again pls understand its not necessary but we should be prepared for high cost inventory playing spoil sport. also, its not something confined to prima its just pure business dynamics and precisely for this reason the next quarters would quite possibly be great. Also, understand that since mid nov the prices are down so already the new inventory is costing 30% lower … so now we know this year’s consolidated numbers would be very good, but imagine the consolidated numbers next year where the full benefit of lower raw material prices would reflect in the overseas subsidiary’s number where the margins are already so high. this crude prices would stay at the levels of 40-65 levels is my hope.but then again its all theory and its not bad to be prepared for this because logically it might happen
Dear Ace
Last couple of weeks, only large cap is performing and small cap stocks are tanking though few stock specific action is going on. Overall broader market is not performing. Is there any reason behind this?
dont know and not really bothered about this phenomena at the moment
Dear Ace,
Your view on Emmbi Industries ? You had given comment “under research” to a query from one of the readers a couple of months back. Any updates ?
Thanks,
Gouri
if there’s something i’ll definitely post it
Sir then u advise to add more prima to average down the price. Sir do u have any idea about results of vidhi.
only if you are convinced y ourself. I know i would.
Don’t got u sir ‘i know I would’??
basically i am very bullish on stock personally
Hi Ace,
In auto ancillary sector other than simmonds which among the following do you think has better prospects? 1) JBM Auto 2) Lumax Auto 3) Samkrg pistons 4) Munjal Auto.
Thanks
all four are decent,
your view on digjam,cgvalk and acrysil
digjam still not sure as of now, acrysil is decent
Sir, Please come with a multibagger from pharma sector. How about Geojith Parib, Spicejet, ? Could we enter at the CMP ?
geojit, i dont track, spicejet just replied a couple of days back
can i expect today release new stock idea ???? after 2 pm ???
no not today
Hi Ace,
Rajoo is continuously falling even after such good results…any bad news or just consolidation is haaping? also what is the support level as per cmp.
thanks in advance
that’s fine…not worried as the business is doing very well
hi
any views on unitech, for past few week continuous block deals are being done. I know U don’t Like the stock but there has been lot of block deals and “Mayfair Capital” is continuously giving trade related dis-closures to sebi. I humbly request to have a look if possible
not interested in unitech
Sir what your view on Ambika Cotton at present levels.
as mentioned earlier i like this stock. these kind of stocks should be held on for long term
hello aceji,
Can you please advice about man infra construction and sharon bio medicine for long term ??
man is decent…sharon i dont like
sir what is your view on rs soft can i buy at 220 levels
i think so.. the stock is good for long term
Do you like Asian granito
its decent
Can it be a multibagger . can it be bought
that you have to take a call sir
It seems that prima has strong support at level of 59 – 61. A strong base with strong business with strong future with expected strong results.
yes… the stock could be good wealth creator over the long term
Hi ace,
Just wanted to share the below article I read a few days back on Sahyadri for the benefit of other readers .
Two lakh Cemply Swachalay installation targeted by March 2016
Press Trust of India | Coimbatore January 23, 2015 Last Updated at 15:25 IST
Sahyadri Industries Ltd (SIL), who has launched ‘Cemply Swachalay’, a do it yourself latrine, is targeting to install two lakh toilet blocks across the country by the end of next financial year, a top company official said today.
The company, which has launched the green toilets, as part of Prime Minister’s Swachh Bharati Mission, has installed nearly 2,000 Swachalays in Maharashtra and Gujarat, M Satyanarayanan, President (Sales and Marketing), SIL, told PTI.
On target, Satyanarayana said that the company, which has already launched this toilets in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and also Tamil Nadu, wanted to install two lakh toilets by 2016 March.
The company is confident to install 15,000 toilets by March 2015, Satyanarayana, here to launch the products, said.
Stating that toilets ranging from rs. 18,000 to rs.35,000 and can be built in villages under various National, State and Local self government initiated schemes, with a subsidy of rs12,000, he said though water was a major cause of concern, SIL was willing to provide a water tap, if the local bodies link the area with pipeline.
When asked about coordinating with NGOs or Corporates in constructing toilets in schools, both in rural and urban areas, he said that the company has already initiated one such project in Pune.
If any Corporates or big companies come forward under its Corporate Social Responsibility, SIL would extend all help for installing such toilets, he said, it was also ready to assist National and State highways departments to install toilets.
The company, with six manufacturing units, has the capacity of mass production, speedy logistics and installation, which can be done in any terrain of little resources like tribal, hilly areas, tourist spots, forts and also residential and school premises.
SIL is selected for Best Innovation Award, which will be presented during the India CSR Summit, to be held at Delhi on February six, Satyanarayana said.
Thanks
Ace,
Going by the article we could be looking at 20cr additional revenue for the next quarter and around 300cr additional revenue for next FY just from this new product. From your interactions with the management do you think they will be able to achieve such an ambitious target?
no specific details were divulged, but they are very confident of this product doing well.
your view on williamson finance and maithan alloys?
not interested in williamson, maithan is decent
Hi Ace,
I sent out an email to investor mail contact given by Prima but dint get any response.
Since you have had discussions with the promoters of prima, I wanted to know your take on them? Do they come across as “Fire in the belly” kinds? coz that’s one thing which is very important in my opinion if this were to be a part of core holdings or it becoming a Midcap/ Largecap one day.
At this point Prima is an opportunistic bet for me for next 1-2 years as I feel its mispriced.
Regards,
Niranjan
most multibaggers start from being an under-appreciated bet.. the management is conservative here. they want to chase growth but not at any cost. interesting point to note is that their growth (plastic division) in last 8-9 yrs is better than nilkamal (plastic division) albeit on smaller base, but then nilkamal started way earlier too.
Ace investor ji….great work and help to small investors….Please let us have your views on Control Print co….have been growing topline n bottom line quite decently over last 5 years or so . Thanks in advance.
decent company
ACE how is info-edge
good for long term
hi ace, ur views on phoenix lamps ?
no change from my previous view
Dear Ace,
I had a conversation with Prima.I was told though the r/m prices are down by 30%,their selling prices have also come down by 15%,which totally negates the fall in raw material price.So the numbers may not be rosy going forward coz of fall in sales as anticipated.
how? where is the difference of 15% going, that’s coming in bottomline. if the fall in raw material is equal to price reduced then we are not gaining anything, but if there’s a difference of 15% that’s huge. especially for overseas subsidiary the absolute amount is great. this itself adds around 5rs to the bottomline and this considering no growth and no further reduction in raw material prices. also, if i consider some increase in raw material prices, we will get an excellent consolidated numbers for next year as well. By the way, who said there would be fall is sales, or is it your own conclusion. the company has grown topline in the worst of cases, and why do you think the selling price was cut? it was cut to arrest any downfall in sales.
I guess if they were able to pull off good performance during all those high cost period along with div and good cagr, it should be easy for them to deliver good results. Also management quality seems to be impeccable from their history. Now prima has become a story where lot many retail investors have pinned huge hopes. Keeping fingers crossed. Waiting for hope turning to reality.
thats rig ht. and the hopes are for all the right reasons IMHO. over analysis is always detrimental … it pays a lot to keep it simple. its good to be cautious but its even better to be realistic. remember between a great company and a great stock, the latter always pays. we are debating if prima is a great company or not but that’s irrelevant, because we know its a great stock.
So true, we just need a great stock.
Raw material cost will be only part of their overall cost. If raw material cost is down by 30% and company wants to pass on complete benefit to the customers, they won’t be able to reduce the finished product price by 30%. The 15% reduction in sale price most likely negate the benefit of reduction of raw material. However, it helps in higher volumes, which in turn helps in margin growth.
it should not or else no business could grow
Ace, Cybertech board meeting on 5th Feb for Q3 results. Jfi of your readers.
Hi ACE,
Would appreciate your views on Omkar Speciality Chemicals as a long term investment bet.
Regards.
its a decent company for a long term
Dear Ace
Can IPCA lab be bought at current level for long term like 2-3 years for good gains .Same with Reliance industries ,your valued opinion will be highly appreciated.
regards
sanjeev jain
looks like for ipca, reliance i am not interested.
Dear Ace,
The prices were cut to align with the market.And the savings due to reduction of 25-30% in raw material is offset by reduction of 15% in sale price as r/m constitutes around 50% of the sales.
exactly…so even if the prices are reduced by 15% the raw material prices going down by 30% (i am told its precisely 30% as of now) does give the business ample amount of headroom on the bottomline. and this quantum of price reduction that you are talking about is done only for domestic business not for their subsidiary.
There is lots of hoe in prima. Like me many small retail investors are badly waiting for results of prima. Even though this result may not be in line with expectations i believe that future is super so i am invested in it and add more on monday. Between ace sir any idea whn is the results of prima. Sir also request u to pls update on results of freshtrop ambika cotton (results are today) n vidhi. thanks
it would be updated on the stock exchanges first sir.
i am badly waiting for V2 results. Date is Feb 5. hope V2 will resume its upward journey post Q3 numbers. Right Ace?
let’s wait for the results
Rohit, If what you said is correct, there won’t be any benefit because of reduction in raw material. However, if they can increase their volumes, it should help in increasing margins.
rohit’s figures need explanation because he’s taken a much higher sale of 85cr (which should be close to 73cr) while maintaining the raw material cost as 48cr.
Sir,
Could you please let us know about the stock which you were planning to suggest and then the reasons due to which, you decided not to. It would help us in analyzing the stocks, going forward.
Thanks.
Dear Ace,
Sorry,I have not understood as to how there’s headroom in bottomline.As r/m savings is 100% offset by reduction in sale price…can you also tell me what’s the % share Prima holds in ‘Prima -Delite’.
thnx
its written in their AR
Rohit,
Let me try to explain you with an example what Ace is trying to say. Based on last 3 qaurters ram material percentage to sales is 67%. So assuming sales is Rs 100 raw material cost is Rs 67. Now since raw material has fallen by 30%, it brings down raw material cost to Rs (67 – (67*0.3%)) = Rs 47. Sale price having fallen down by 15%, brings down the sale price to (100 – (100*0.15%) = Rs 85. So net-net if you see there is an expansion in earning of (85-47) – (100-67) = Rs5 from the earlier scenario to current scenario.
Now, this is just an illustration. Actuals may vary. Especially it may not reflect this qaurter. It will most probably reflect in Q4 or Q1 FY16. Moreover, as ace mentions it may not be the same for the Cameroon Jv where Prima might be selling at a premium. Hope this helps.
Dear Akshay,
Thnx for the explanation.The raw material cost (which was Rs. 48 crores in 2014) on sales of I think around 85 crores.So ,if we take 27% reduction in r/m (as transportation cost is fixed) ,it comes to Rs.12.96 crs ,whereas ,the reduction in revenue comes to Rs. 12.75 crores.So there’ hardly any arbitrage benefit in that sense .
rohit, why are you taking such high sale of 85cr? for your calculation but raw material cost as 48cr? remember businessses are run to grow and make more money. can you explain me the basis of your figures because that is creating a wrong impression
Rohit,
But how did you arrive to raw material cost of rs 48cr. As per the AR cost of material and components consumed is 52.42cr and purchase of stock in trade is 2.49cr. Sales is 86.27cr less excise duty 6.81cr = 79.45cr. If we divide (52.42+2.49)=54.91 by 79.45, we get 69.11%. I am not sure if change in inventories is also considered in raw material cost. If it is then raw material cost gets reduced by 3.08cr. Even then raw material cost as percentage of sales is 65%. What you said would hold true if raw material cost was 50% or lower to sales.
Please note that excise duty cannot be a part of sales as raw material cost is also exclusive of excise duty. Moreover these figures are only on standalone basis. Consolidated figures may vary. Please correct me if I am wrong in my calculations.
Hi Ace, How are the Q3 results of Ambika Cotton ?
it should be announced at the exchanges.
Hi Ace, Its already announced. Q3 numbers look flattish with -ve bias. Whats your view ?
saw the numbers, it decent. nothing to worry, these kinds of businesses dont need active tracking. as expected it looks raw material prices easing is going to help. no need to worry here. its a wonderfully run company
Water base looks like it is going to take off. Is it advicable to add some at this price
i like the stock a lot…
Hi Ace,
I hold V2 Retail and have been trying to contact the CS Dheeraj Mishra since the last few days at 3231 6262 but it has been off. This is the only number provided for the head office at Delhi. I had also sent a mail asking for a contact number but have not received a reply since a week. I’ve been dialing the mobile number of the managers of each store to see if they can help out but they don’t have any other number!?
The deal is if you check the V2 website (about section), they have boldly stated that they expect to clock 300 crore revenue this FY (the entire website and content has been revamped recently). In September Mr. Agarwal said that he is aiming for 270-280 cr revenue with 9 crore profit, it seems like he is on track . Also, they plan to open more stores which will add 50 crore revenue per month (about section). So, theoretically we’re looking at revenues of 1000 crore for next FY which is insane !!
I have personally checked out the V2 retail store in Jamshedpur and must say they stocked everything possible during Winter with the range being very very affordable. Also, they were making use of every available inch of space !
Now, I really want to know how these guys are going to resolve the sales tax dispute because if they lose, its game over completely. but since they’re so optimistic trying to figure out a franchise model and giving such aggressive targets, it seems like they know its going to go in their favor (whenever it does, which God knows when) . But its very hard to digest that they will be left off the hook so easily.
I REALLY want to speak to the CS to understand what their strategy is because if they know things will be fine, we have a real winner on our hands already. Automatically, PE rerating will be much quicker if this headache goes away. PE rerating + massive EPS expansion, and we have a monster in the making !!
Would appreciate if anyone can help get in touch with him. Thanks
court case cant go on forever and we must realise that there have been lot of summons/hearings without any conclusion. so, these guys must be going to court again and again to defend their case and must be getting repeated re-hearings.
we need to figure out whats happening exactly on the ground. i fear that day when therere will be an announcement on the exchange stating that weve lost the case !!
How are u Chirag bhai? Seeing a post from you after sometime. Also check out new facebook page “V2 Retail Limited”. They also seemed to have started a new blog called v2kart – search for “V2 Kart Fashion” in google
i am good… the facebook page is nice… lets hope for some fireworks soon
I think mr Yatish Bhardwaj is current CS as per AR. Mr Mishra resigned.
Hi Ace, Whats your view on Oreint bvg. @ CMP ? It has fallen by more than 50% on very thin volumes in the past one month or so.
at around 20-22cr market cap it becomes a good bet
i spoke to orient CS.. the bottling plant for Urzza energy drink is under way.. results will start showing up post March he said
the kicker would start from next quarter… mar quarter would be very subdued if at all they start the production
sir camson bio tech and persistent system view?
for “ANG Industries” need your views Ace sir…god bless
waiting for valuable comment 🙂
just gave ..
not confident as of now, but it certainly has potential
Avanti feeds has came with good set of numbers. Exports are marginally down but domestic sales has grown approx 68 % yoy.net profit up nearly 50% yoy.
What do you expect from water base. Will they grow as same pace of avanti feeds.
we’ll soon come to know but all i know is waterbase will keep on growing at a brisk pace.
http://money.bhaskar.com/news/NR-CORP-vishal-megamart-to-begin-ecommerce-venture-after-impressive-show-by-flipkart-4768626-NOR.html
Ace check this out about V2
the last point on slide 2 mentions that V2 management is expecting tremendous growth in last 6 months of this Financial year. Really looking forward to numbers on Feb 5!
विशाल मेगामार्ट का कारोबार
=> कंपनी की कुल तीन सब्सिडियरी VRL मूवर, VRL रिटेल और VRL इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर है।
=> कंपनी के पोर्टफोलियो में अभी करीब 70000 प्रोडक्ट हैं।
=> 2013 के मुकाबले 2014 में कंपनी की आय 105 करोड़ से बढ़कर 228 करोड़ रुपए रही है।
=> मार्च 2009 तक देश में कंपनी के कुल 182 स्टोर थे।
=> मैनेजमेंट को दूसरी छमाही में जोरदार ग्रोथ की उम्मीद लगा रही है।
edited you link, was broken.
Thanks Ace for fixing the broken link, my bad. One suggestion, if you feel any of your past recommendations is still a value buy, may be you can have a post with a “Re-iterate Buy” rather than coming up with a new idea everytime, just a suggestion. Stocks like waterbase, prima, v2, etc
A very good suggetion.
Ace what’s your view on Gujarat Automative result and ex promoter selling stake.
Thanks in advance
would prefer zf to gujarat automotive as i had mentioned earlier.
hi ace , whats ur view on nitin spinners… seems to hv gud support at cmp.. min doward risk
hi ace .. whats ur view on nitin spinners… seems to hv gud support at cmp
hi sumesh, the blog is not focussed on technicals so would refrain from commenting on it.
hi ace ..thanks for replying ..whats ur view about fundamentals of nitin spinners
that perspective is already given on the blog
and also why Liberty is better than Superhouse IUHO???? Thx…
When is ur next multibagger pick?
tomorrow or day after tomorrow.
Hi Ace, how is Nucleous Software or do you still prefer RS over it?
both are good…
Also, would like to know your views on Odyssey Technologies – a pioneer in Information Security in the Asia-Pacific region.
have already given my views on it
pls share your views on Arrow Textiles. Thnks
already presented my views on it
sir , what is wrong with rs software i bought it at 150 levels and the stocks has cracked below 200 what is the future of the cpmpany and supports levels to buy more
nothing wrong fundamentally
ace sir ji
when release your new stock idea ???
probably tomorrow or day after tomorrow
sir , what is wrong with rs software i bought it at 255 levels and the stocks has cracked below 200 what is the future of the cpmpany and supports levels to buy more
hi ace. ur views on godrej properties pls?
positive for long term
Dear ACE,
I went through Prima Plastics annual reports and found all parameters doing well on balance sheet but only problem i found was cash flow from operating activities. Constantly it is not able to catch up with net profit. Do you see a concern here?
no its not a concern. will be helpful for you to go through the comments as earlier we have discussed this multiple times
do you track Ratnamani Metals & Tubes?
yea
is it a buy at CMP?
Ace sir i got to know that vidhi’s result is on 17.2.2015. Hoping the same should be best at it gives always. Anyways it does not matter.
how do you know? where was it declared?
One of my frnd
during mkt hrs
or
post
its written in the post itself
HI Ace. Any view on Sudar Industreis, Asian Granito, Usher Agro?? Plz do let me know at your favorable time, Thank you 🙂
already replied on these three stocks multiple times