Background: The Bulk Drugs is a huge industry within the Pharma Sector and as the complete sector is in strong growth momentum (and is expected to continue for a long time to come), it’s given opportunities to companies that were down in dumps to come out of their mess and start afresh. There are quite a few such companies, but its important that we get into a company that’s of very high quality, run by “smart” management (and ofcourse honest – that’s implicit) and has a bright future, irrespective of industry and stock market tailwinds. Gujarat Themis Biosyn is a unique consortium of three drug Companies – Themis Medicare Ltd., Yuhan Corporation (a company with over 860 million USD in revenue and over 78 million USD in profits) and Pharmaceutical Business Group India Ltd. With Yuhan’s know-how, GTBL became India’s first Company to start commercial production of Anti-tuberculosis drug Rifampicin, which it presently supplies to Lupin.
The Company: Gujarat Themis, went into BIFR in 2008 under the impact of consistent losses and debt. Under the scheme of re-habilitation a lot of operating and functional changes were brought in the company. The Face Value of each share of the Company was reduced from Rs.10 to Rs. 5 and the reduction in the value of equity shares was utilized to write-off a part of accumulated losses of the Company . Themis Medicare Ltd. was inducted as co-promoter of the Company and issued 2928702 shares of FV rs 5 at 10rs each. The induction of Themis as a co-promoter brought in the much needed sting and zeal in the operations of the company. The new promoters also brought in the sole long term customer in Lupin. Lupin’s deal with GTBL changed the fortunes of the company. The contours of this deal were very lucrative for GTBL. GTBL entered into a contract with lupin to supply Rifa (with the technology know-how brought in with another co-promoter – Yuhan Corporation). Lupin gave GTBL interest-free loan for capex that was required to finish the contract. This loan from Lupin was a returnable non-interest bearing loan and was repayable against 50% of the “Conversion Charges” for each invoice raised. So, this deal was beneficial to GTBL in more than one ways. Needless, to say this contract brought in very good topline and bottomline for the company. To the credit of GTBL, with each passing quarter the company has been improving its operating efficiency and it now has one of the best operating parameters in the industry. Now, with the recent announcement of the new supply agreement with Lupin that starts from 1st April 2015 – Mar 2018 the company gets solid visibility to its earnings. This is going to be a bigger deal with the contours almost being same. Lupin would invest in GTBL, though the exact type of investment is not known but it could be either equity/interest-free loans (or something that we’ll come to know pretty soon). Now this deal is significant not just because of its contours but also because the effect it will have on the future of GTBL. This is expected to be a much bigger deal than last time and therefore, it will have a very positive impact on the fiscal position of the company. The company should “very easily” (as per the company) come out of BIFR by this FY thereby removing the clutches of BIFR. And once the company comes out of BIFR, the company will expand to newer products. Additionally, the company is also exploring the possibility of “offshoring” some of the manufacturing of its another promoter, Yuhan Corporation. Given the already established operational efficiency of the company any increase in revenue would significantly add to the bottomline too and the company is expected to clock significant revenue and profit growth in the years to come.
This is also one of those rare pharma companies that works on negative working capital and that’s because of significant “Advance from Customers” and this makes its fiscal profile even more significant. The company has excellent cash flows and has been reducing debt every year now.
Valuations: The company at present market cap of around 63cr is trading at 12 times FY15 PE and 8 times FY16 PE. The company has reduced debt in last couple of years with an interest coverage ratio in double digits and generates strong free cash flows. The company has one of the best efficiency parameters and with the renewed and better Lupin deal, the company’s fiscal and earning position is going to fly in a different orbit. According to the company, they would come out of BIFR (that means a profit of atleast around 7.5-8cr in FY16), by the end of the present FY and after that there would be another round of re-rating for the company. The revenues have grown in the last three years from 8.71cr to present expected revenues of around 31cr and the bottomline has grown from a loss of more than 4 cr to an expected profit of 5.2cr. The company in the first nine months has already given a profit of around 3.75cr and a topline of around 23.3cr. The promoter holding is close to 75% with no pledge.
Technicals: The stock recently gave a 10-year breakout and is looking better and better, day by day. The stock is hardly giving any correction. Even when the nifty slided around 800 points the stock hardly gave up any ground and at the slightest hint of broader recovery again climbed back to highs and created new highs. The stock is looking strong on all time frames now.
The company is certainly very promising no doubt. As per the original plan the company was expected to come out of BIFR by 2018, but instead they would come out by this year (and ofcourse whatever they have achieved so far is way ahead of BIFR schedule), and this is tremendous. They have transformed themselves from a messy affair to a dream affair on back of some extremely strong operational parameters. It’s very commendable that it won the confidence of lupin (that has now renewed the contract on revised terms) and that’s a great achievement for a company which almost died. Earlier their dependence on Lupin was one of the biggest risk but with the new lupin contract, this risk is largely mitigated because now we have visibility for three years . Considering, the strong revenue visibility on back of Lupin deal, possibility of offshoring by Yuhan Corp, and introduction of newer products, the company’s business is bound to fly into a different zone altogether in the coming years. All that we need to do is sit back and enjoy the evolvement of the business. Technically too, the stock is bullish on all timeframes especially long term (as is the focus of this blog). I was hoping to get a better price entry but the stock is simply refusing to move down. People should take their own call regarding entry price, but one thing is sure, that given enough time, the stock should be way higher than it is today, this ofcourse is my strong belief.
Disclaimer: It is safe to assume that I may have some vested interests in the stock. Also, the above stock view is my personal view in individual capacity. For rest, please look at the About page.
This is a very interesting story. Thanks for the pick.
do research it well before deciding on any action that you take
Thanks bro for the new idea. On face off it looks good but don’t you think dependence on one single customer is risky in any scenario. Are they looking out for new ways other than offshoring some of the manufacturing to Yuhan Corporation
not anymore, since they have renewed their contract, its clear they are not going anywhere. also, after this year, i would not care (pun intended) about Lupin because this yr they would come out of BIFR and then they are free to expand, acquire technologies and therefore, it would be easier to get more customers. This is personally what i was waiting for…some more confirmation on sustainability and visibility of the business, which i think we’ve got.
Then this could be on of the gem to hold on for years
that’s the expectation. i hope people do not try to trade this. we have a good story infront of us with low float and therefore, once we get into it, we should just let it ride the re-rating and earnings growth wave and not be perturbed by volatility if any.
Dear ACEji,
thanks for discivering another GEM. Hope it will satisfy lot of readers who keep asking for pick from Pharma .
Regards,
Prashant
oh ok. actually i dont scout with a top down approach, normally but its good if somebody wanted an option in this sector,then this is definitely worth investigating.
sir your view on bharat bijlee limited.
its in real trouble man. why are you interested in it?
Thanks Ace ur report is verry interesting. Keep up the good work.
Thanks for the new pick
sir basically i m a technical analyst . not fundamentalist. thts why asked you for bharat bijlee ltd. its in a monthly buy. very promising chart like tech mahindra before 2 yrs back and brittania a year back. thts wht asked your view for fundamentally.
ok
Hi Ace – came across an interesting article. Am sharing the excerpts for benefit of fellow investors / your followers. Potential for Pressman. I have vested interest in the stock.
Pl remove it if you find any violations.
Source ET
Digital ad spend to rise significantly in India
India’s media ad spend is just 1.1 per cent of the global total, according to eMarketer. This year, ad spending will rise 8 per cent to just $6.6 billion and a little over $900 million of it will go toward digital ads, which works out to about 14.2 per cent of total ad spend, the third smallest share worldwide, ahead of only Argentina and Indonesia. But by 2019, digital ads will command a share of more than a quarter of total ad spending in India, ahead of even France, Spain, Italy and Brazi ..
Thanks for sharing.
ACE, surprise action on a holiday!!! But its a good gift for all of us (blog readers).
“Gifts must affect the receiver to the point of shock”.
– Walter Benjamin
good one.. its an art to use your literary skill aptly .. 🙂
sir, the stock is looking explosive on the long terms charts. According to wave theory i believe in next 3-5 year timeframe the targets are in high triple digits. normally i just look at technicals but when there’s something fundamental accompanying, its becomes a promising story. Thanks for the call. looking forward to it.
ok
Hi Ace,
Thanks for the detailed analysis. Appears the company is ahead of its restructuring plan.In the valuation section I couldn’t understand the meaning of “interest coverage ratio in double digits”. Could you explain a little bit about that plz.
that means interest coverage ratio is more than 10.
Thanks for this Gem ! plz share ur view on Revathi equipment !
no view as of now
Ace sir, wanna know ur views on VLR logistics IPO.
personally i do not invest in IPOs.
Hey Prasanth,
I thought you should watch this video
sir, what to do with freshtrop fruits, buy, sell, hold.(already holding, not sold)……lot of news coming, just confused……..need ur opinion….thanks
what are you confused of?
regarding lower circuits, also news of ruining crops, US allowing indians fruits, all I wanted to know is the news positive or negative for FF…..
what has company replied on all this? what’s their response?
I see no response from them…… wanted ur opinion
contact them again… call the CS
Dear ACE,
You have been kind enough in giving direct reply/opinion to all companies except Freshtrop Fruits..Off late if anyone ask anything about Freshtrop you are just directing us to contact the CS…Why only for Freshtrop ? Written to the CS but no reply. Also unable to reach him over phone. Is this the company still under your radar ?… Even though we do our own home work we always look for your guidance.
Just share as per “IMHO” whether long term is in tact … Please don’t take me wrong.
Regards
JG
i did the same for v2, cybertech, vidhi etc also but its disappointing when people dont try to follow up their own companies. i will not do any portfolio management here. freshtrop is a very good company but still noone is bothering to talk to company..why? if noone is replying to your email, did you call them? why are you not calling them?
Friend – as a owner of the companies we bought, we have to do our bit. Sometimes i know cos of some external factors stock gets beaten and our conviction shaken, under such circumstances we need to ask ourselves questions, irrespective of being able to catch the management or not.
Has there been a change in fundamentals of the business ?
Has the management done something that spoils the story ?
Reason that made you purchase the stock, is it still valid ?, etc.
Reasoning might help you to spot an opportunity in uncertainty.
Just trying to help you out, don’t get me wrong. I too am learning.
Cheers
Hi Ace.,
Good pick for new gem in pharma…!!!
Your view on “Xchanging soultions”
not too keen on it
Hello Ace ji..Thanks a lot for finding this Gem, however it would have been great if u could have been publish it when it was around 30..but no problem as we know late is better than never…….however I was expecting a solid Pharma growth stock with good book value and product as I missed Wanbury(did not buy it thinking about the negative book value is negative and risky) which has not happened yet……this guy is having negative book value but this looks less risky than Wanbury…….
I am impressed with the story, however I have 2 concerns
1)Last total sales were around 30 cr. and this year also looks like it will be around 30-32 crore…..no no real growth we are seeing in term of sales…..with the same contract with Lupin got renewed , the same sales figure might be repeated…..so sales are kind of getting stagnant which is not the characteristic for a multi bagger…….comments on the same please…
2)Valuations—Now the Lupin Deal is already counted in the stock price by showing huge rise in the stock….and also 500% rise in last 1year…..so is not it overvalued now?….do u think it will correct a bit in near future…should we jump tomorrow morning or wait for it to consolidate….? actually I have some money which I kept to add more of Waterbase….but then I need a Pharma stock badly, I can divert that money to this guy provided CMP is a good entry point…..or else I can wait for the consolidation………but then I am seeing some crazy movement in almost all Pharma stocks including blue chips which does not satisfy the fundamentals, this guy can continue its up move and I might miss the bus again like Wanbury….so please reply to this technical qs…
I must say, overall it is a good pick…so Thanks a lot and God Bless You!!!!!!!!
Thanks & Regards,
Hafiz
how can we value a turnaround company with the same metrics as an established company? why do you want to look at book value of such companies? it is bound to be negative. can you please explain me the rationale behind it?
1. yes, this year also the sales would be just slightly higher (as clearly mentioned in the note) but it seems you have not read the stock story where it is saying that the new contract would be “bigger”. Also, look at the annoucements. Then why are you saying its going to be same? Also, for same terms as in last year, the OPM margins have actually improved.What does it tell you about the company? what about the other triggers that are written (new produccts and offshoring)?
2. how can deal be counted in the price if its not even started delivering it? there are tons of other companies who have gone up by 5-7 times, and when gross undervaluation is discounted this growth happens.
My advise to you is to stay out of this or any company that i recommend as i am a growth invest and you are a “value investor” so whatever i say may be counter intutive to you.
Hello Ace ji,
Sorry if I sounded as to oppose u on everything…….but its not correct at all….I mentioned already that I am impressed with the story but I had those concerns which are resolved now……….although i have another question if u don’t mind please……..pls don’t take it as negative….regarding the face value reduction of the share……as far as i know in this case the face value gets deducted overnight which effectively dilute the per share value of the share…..so in turn shareholder’s effective value gets reduced…..so do u think this is good management’s practice to reduce face value of the share…..and also when the HFCL promoters did the same, we, investors said them cheaters/fraudulent etc. and this was one of the reason behind free fall the share price of HFCL….but when GTBL did the same act we are not saying the management as cheaters rather we are saying the management is good….why is this bias….?
This question is being asked not to attach you rather i want to know what is the different situations where reduction of fv acts as positive/negative(HFCL/GTBL)…so that it will help to clear the confusion on GTBL management and we can invest with clear view and no tension after investing and also this knowledge will help in future to take investment decision.
Thanks in advance!!!!!!!!!
dont apologize brother. see, my point is simple. first understand what kind of investor/trader are you, which primarily means your risk profile. you seem very defensive and i am opposite. also, i like risk because its worked wonders for me in the past. I like risk also because that keeps me on my toes and improves my research capability as turnaround companies need backing of very very strong research. anyways, coming to your point, please go through the stock story to see why the FV was reduced and if you think there was some other and better way of achievving what they achieved by splitting FV, do tell pls. Also, who said splitting FV is a bad thing. Why you comparing GTBL with HFCL, why not with ICICI, they also split FV…HFCL was bad because of more than one reasons..
Hello Ace ji…..i think there is difference between split and fv reduction…in case of split fv gets reduced but the number of shares gets increased with the same multiple but in case of fv reduction just face value will be reduced(share capital will get reduced) without any increase in number of shares……….pls let me know if i am wrong…….and in case of GTBL, it was fv reduction and not split…..pls correct me if i am wrong….regarding my investment type…i am also primarily interested in growth stock but yes if i am not convinced on turn around story , i prefer to stay away……however i am convinced on this guy and taken entry at 47.00….will add more if it comes down……Thanks for all your analysis and hard work….God Bless U!!!!!!!!!!!
i would strongly, strongly suggest you that finance course. its re-starting in a couple of weeks. do take that. it will answer everything for you and would also save time.
Okay Ace ji….Could you pls give any link or details so that i can apply for this course…if u dont want to post links here the please mail me to hafizul.ju@gmail.com…..Thanks in advance!!!!!!!!
its there at the blog. i will also post it as a new blog post just a week before its start date, so you can keep an eye on any new blog posts here
Sure Ace ji……will wait for the details…..Thanks!!!!!
Ace , Please provide your view on Brigade enterprises..
i would refrain from real estate companies. sorry buddy, never feel comfortable with pure real estate play (until and unless it has major portion as affordable housing).
Hello Ace ji…Waterbase is on FIRE today………….:)….looks like break out for much higher level………Patience paid off…hopefully this up move will continue….its a undervalued still……….Thanks a lot for finding this kind of real GEMS….God Bless U and Ur Family!!!!!!!!!!
oh great. stock was looking strong on the charts… infact a lot of stocks have broken out or on the verge of breaking out… do not have access to FB or my trading terminal therefore, could not update my FB with trading calls. but overall , waterbase should have given a good more (and now you are confirming it), hopefully the same thing is happening in other shares too. keep an eye on simmonds, today or max by tomorrow it should make new highs, rajoo if it sustains above 17 or makes a new high, another good breakout can happen…prima’s breakout this time looks strongest and should make a new high soon. liberty also should give a strong move max by tomorrow and if sharp goes around 84-85 and closes above it, it would be a good breakout then..sorry to hijack your comment, its just that i do not have access to anything else other than my emails, so updating the blog rather than FB is simpler 🙂
what are thoughts on cybertech, its around 80-90% up from its recent low…can we expect some consolidation here?
why are you worried about consolidation man. just enjoy the ride ….
I am enjoying the ride..my loss is almost covered…thanks…i get the jest…
great man…
Sir, just hope Prima is able to go past the congestion of 72-74.. It will be a real heart break to see it fall now 🙂
the downside is now capped. i do not see it tanking now, a bit of consolidation (if happens) is fine and next upmove should take out this high…lets see now.
Please don’t be sorry to me……..u are like Guru to all of us…so Guru should never be sorry….rather we will be sorry if we make any mistake…..regarding breakout, yes i also agree…..hope u remember i had asked u one qs some time ago regarding which one to buy from Waterbase and Liberty…although i was convinced on both these guys but entered Waterbase(would have entered Liberty as well if i would have more funds)…so feeling happy that i am also learning the things in stock market from u as to when to buy and buy only after getting fully convinced….that conviction on Waterbase paid off today…..so feeling happy…only thing is that i don’t have any surplus money in hands otherwise i want(in fact wanting from last 1month) to invest in Liberty badly….anyway limitation of funds will be there with small investors as we are small…. 🙂
But overall i am very happy…and all credit goes to u Ace ji…….u do filter the companies by very tough criteria…so they are bound to do well sooner or later and they are good in long term guaranteed with more than 100%….
Thanks again…Cheers…God Bless U!!!!!!!!!!!
no no …i am no guru, just a passionate student of the markets. and yes, you got it right…just take my stock stories here as a filter and select what you like most… this is a very good thought…
Sure Ace ji….but u r our Guru even if u deny it multiple times!!!!!!!!!!
And sir.. vidhi is also looking very strong, considering the fact that it is holding the 20 level.. isn’t it?
this is the reason i refrain from commenting anything on technicals here. why are you worried on vidhi man?
Arre sir.. Please don’t get me wrong… I am extremely sorry.. I am not worried at all.. I am making decent profits on both vidhi and Prima plastics.. Since u were discussing technicals, I thought I would seek ur opinion on Vidhi.. Sorry sir.. U are right, let’s keep technicals off the blog. 🙂
yes, lets keep it out pls. but just to soothe your nerves, vidhi is strong
Rajoo made new today of 17.90..cheers
that’s good..if the promoters are not selling, the supply dries up and therefore, the demand (which was never a problem for rajoo), then starts to overwhelm.good.
shakti pump trding at 13 p/e where as ksb pumb trading at 35 p/e any reason for low p/e for shakti
because PE is a combination of so many things, its not a formula.. please search the blog on it, i remember having animated discussions on this with our fellow readers
Dear ACE,
“The company should “very easily” (as per the company) come out of BIFR by this FY thereby removing the clutches of BIFR.”
It means FY 2014-15 or FY 2015-16
Please clarify.
Thanks
sir, now we are in FY16, with march 31 last FY has ended. for coming out of BIFR they would need around 8cr of profits so if company says that they would come out of BIFR, we can have a good educated guess that FY 16 profits should be atleast above 8cr – ofcourse depending on what we see in last quarter too. but the body language communicates a lot and we as bargain hunters for growth companies should combine multiple variables to come at this conclusion. God Bless
sir that would mean 50% growth in profits.. that’s very good
that’s what’s indicated in the stock story right…
As usual, no surprise this time as well….GTBL has locked in UC with no buyers available…i got it in preopening session at 47.00…. 🙂 Cheers:)
not sure how it went to UC if there’s no buyers….
🙂
Oopss!!!!! I meant no seller available!!!!!!!!!
oh yes
Dear ace,
A couple of days back I initiated a discussion on Tasty Bite Eatables on this Board. You have rightly pointed out that the company has grate potential but the negative for the was parent company. Now the concern is addressed as a food major from Japan has acquired the parent company of Tasty Bite. This should put to rest the corporate governance issues with the company. Now, the business of the company is likely to grow multi-fold over the years and the impact of the same on share price should be exponential as the number of outstanding shares are very small. Could not increase the holding much, hope to get benefited adequately even with small holding. All set for a Tasty serving. Invite your comments… pl.
thanks for the update. not gone through the contours of the deal as yet…
Kagome Japan has acquired 70 % holding in Preferred Brands and the balance 30% will continue to be held by existing promoters. Managing Executive Officer of Kagome will join the Board of TBEL and he will be co Chairman on the board of FBL. I have gone through the profile of Kagome. The company is a 2 Billion $ company and has reputation of more than 115 years. It is market leader in many of its products, tomato based products are its forte. I hope this is game changing event for TBEL. I think the share is in for a major re-rating. I did not anticipate such a major development in such a short time. It should give decent returns over next several years. We should catch it young. I hope you would agree with me.
investor’s own conviction is most important 🙂
can someone be kind enough to post/email me the DHP price. during sunday i had seen its charts and it was looking strong. i want to check it for my own education. can someone pls mail me the total traded quantity, and highs for today.
todays high 164.90 total traded quantity 44004
hey that’s quick…thanks buddy
happy to help 🙂
really appreciate it. Thanks again.
sir, there’s serious amount of accumulation that’s happening. the circuit was broken but all the shares were lapped up and its again on UC. technically as i said earlier sir, its explosive on long term charts
ok
Whats your view on Lycos Internet?
dont like it
Ace im pretty much convinced of this gem…but dont think i may be able to catch it soon 😦
it was available today ..
Ace i was out of town..came back in the evening…didnt research the company enough…
yes, please research it well and if you get enough confidence then only buy. also, let it consolidate and no need to hurry
yes ace i think it has lot of potential..looking at its last few quarters operating profits are really impressive
Hi, ur view on MRPL?
not interested in it
Your view on thomas cook
i like it from a very long term perspective
Ace ji….is Kopran still a buy at CMP? You published the story at around 27 now its around 56…but I think it had still good potential if they can reduce the debt and improving Margins(specially NPM)….Thx in advance!!!!!!!
not interested in it anymore, dropped from my radar as mentioned on the blog update late last year.
Oh…ok…in that case will add more of our new gem GTBL as and when get some fresh cash….Thanks and good night….:)
Ur view on REI Agro, VKS Project, Vakrangee?
rei agro and vks dont like…vakrangee do not track anymore
Need your view on Manali Petrochemicals Limited, Vinyl Chemicals (India) Limited, Greaves Cotton Limited.
manali and vinyl dont like.greaves is decent
ACE, your view on Campson bio m Tata global beverages at current level for investment.
camson, no change from my previous view. tata global is decent, it has a lot of potential, but that potential has still not reflected in ice action. anyways, its a decent stock with lots of potential.
What is your view for Zen Technologies, Sanghi Industries and TV Today.
Thanks
all three, no change from my previous views
Sir, thank you for your valuable pick…. it is really strong on charts now.
ok
ACE,
Since the company manufactures only 2 products their revenue is capped as they supply to their own promoter.
Whats your take?
no its not capped. they supply mainly to lupin and to themis (a copromoter) ..also, with the bigger lupin deal the revenues are going to increase significantly. additionally in latter half of this FY they also plan to introduce additional products. but the biggest one IMHO, is the offshoring potential from Yuhan…Yuhan is close to a billion USD revenue company and even 10% offshoring to create a humungous revenue opportunity for the company. And above all, i like the operational excellence of the company. not many companies of this size, can boast of such operational excellence..this is significant because it adds bottomline without any change in topline and that’s a huge bonus and thus such companies normally trade at a premium.
Why are you using my name? You imposter.
oh man, really. sammer what you could do is that you register your name and then always use your registered name to post. This prevents any misuse of username. God Bless
What dhld be the entry price?
didnt get you..
Ace,
The sales are flat for last many qtrs as they seem to supply to their co-promoters and have no growth or sales outside Lupin or Yuhan.
They seem to be utilized like subcontracting by their promoters.
Also they have no Certification from USFDA/WHO/UK etc..
the sales are flat because the company is working on “full capacity” but i think its an important point to note that even though the topline is flat, Operating margins have grown, which is very commendable.also, as mentioned clearly in the stock story, they supply to a co-promoter plus majorly to lupin. support from co-promoter is always required in BIFR cases, but what’s significant is that they have won confidence of lupin or else they would not have renewed their contract and also the contours of the deal is very very lucrative from financial leverage’s perspective.
Ace,
Could you pl share your email address as I want to share some info.
thanks
its there in my about page, but here’s it : aceinvestortrader@yahoo.in
sir, there’s a negative report of rolta citing fraud in the company…it looks your point on corporate governance is getting some credence here.
that’s always the overhand on the stock, and that’s why inspite of being in the right sectors it never gets good PE. i mean what kind of an IT company needs that kind of debt…
“Overhang” sir ?? typo…….
🙂 yes, typo
tirupati sarjan debt to equity ratio is above 2.3 cash flow is -minus 5 cr is it safe to invest now
have to gone through the discussion on the tirupati sarjan page or not? pls go through it apart from the stock story
view on ashiana housing and poddar developers
positive on both of them till they focus majorly on affordable housin
Dear ACE,
View on Axiscades Engg ?
positive on declines
Hello Sir ,How the Equity dilution in Aimco will impact the future prospects ?
(it is proposed to increase the Authorised Share Capital of the AIMCO Pesticides from the existing Rs. 10,00,00,000/- (Rupees Ten crores only) divided into 1,00,00,000 (one crore only) Equity Shares .of Rs. 10/- (Rupees ten only) each to Rs. 15,00,00,000/- (Rupees fifteen crores only) divided into 1,50,00,000 (one crore fifty lakhs) Equity Sharesof Rs. 10/- (Rupees ten only) each, by creation of additional 5,00,00,000 (Five crores only)Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- (Rupees ten only) each, as indicated in the Resolution.)
there’s no equity dilution till they issue shares. they have just increased the authorized capital only.
So ,only issued shares will be entitled for dividend, bonus, rights etc. and as long as the company does not issue shares from the authorised capital, there will not be any cause to worry. Right ?
absolutely right.
Thanks Ace 🙂
view on GMM pfaulder and Swiss glass coat
no change from my previous view
what a fast reply, view on acrysil and TV today
both decent for long term
ACE,
Its regarding Freshtrop Fruit.
I contacted CS of FF. As per discussion grapes season completed in the last week.
Q4 was good for export.
I think the unseasonal rain will affect its Q1 FY16. How FF will manage further as they are also in processing. Please guide us.
Thanks
you mean they said food processing division would take care of Q1 FY16?
I asked about the same but no clarity form CS. ACE can you give some guidance?
i didnt understand. i mean only company ppl can reply to that question. did you ask the CS this question or not?
As I said, I asked about the Q1 F16 business prospect but no clarity from CS. So can u do some thing, so that future business could be understand.
the future for long term is obviously very good, but natural calamities would always be part of stocks like freshtrop and waterbase, or even fertilizers companies. that’s understood. but freshtrop and seen and managed that in the past. there could be trouble in the short term but long terms its good. also, future business, only company can do something about it, not me, right?
and CS will not be the right person to answer such strategic moves
Absolutely not you. ACE as per your guidance I started to contact CS of companies. Thanks for ur support. Today contacted GTBL CS. CS not confirmed about the possibility of Offshoring by Yuhan Corp. Just for ur info.
these kind of information is not shared in email/call, you have to personally meet them and should ideally be from a research house of analyst. this is price sensitive information.anyways, lets see how the story pans out
ACE
U r right. CS was somewhat reluctant. Anyway as I am from CBD Belapur, Navi Mumbai. CS was residing near my house few months ago (as per telecom, he shared info). I can meet him personally. But Im not a research analyst. Anyway have u met him personally?
you can, but not sure if its going to be helpful till you know him personally ..
Your take on Inox Winds and Menon bearings?
no change from my previous views
difficult to trace your previous views, anyways thanks !!
Ace ji…do u see any kind of fraud/corporate governance issue in Tanla Solutions(management/promoters)? sorry to ask u this kind of qs suddenly…..
no change from my previous view on tanla
Now the Rolta is gone(Thanks God i am not invested in Rolta) its looking scary for Tanla as well…:) anyway Thx for the reply but it would have been better if u could rate the management from 1 to 10(10 being quality of Infosys)
Hi Sir, Are u surprised by the fall in prima or was it expected after the recent run up… Sir, please don’t think that my conviction is shaken up by the fall.. was just wondering if more can be purchased..
what are the volumes at which it goes up and what are the volumes at which is falls?
what about Rajoo, today volume was quite high than yesterday, tough it covered most of its losses
why are we suddenly discussing technicals here ?
sorry, I know you don’t like to discuss technical over here but was a bit curious thats all
ok
on a funny note: people do ask u regarding technical as u are SPOT ON with ur technical calls almost all the times…….. 🙂
but then the focus moves away from investing to trading and trading is a different ball game. Trading is a full time job, until and unless your trades are for a few quarters (like in my case)
Yeah agree…but i think most of our fellow boarders here are long term investors…but then also they ask regarding just for the mental peace only…..dont think they do day trading/short term trading based on the calls here………anyway i have one request for u Ace ji….when we do ask regarding about any company and u reply with ‘dont like it’…i would request you to put a little bit more effort and put another sentence with the main reason for ur disliking……..because we had some stocks even before we came to know regarding ur excellent blogs…and we want to adjust the portfolio based on the advice…so ur reason of disliking will help us to take our decision….example: i have holding in Tanla before came to know regarding ur blog………if u tell me the reason of disliking that might save me from Rolta kind of incident………This is a sincere request……..and this will help a lot of our fellow boarders here……God Bless U!!!!!
The volumes certainly are more when it goes up..
Hi, please give your views on Kovai Medical Center & Hospital Ltd, thanks…!
decent
Thanks a lot…!
Reading “THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR” and trying to learning the lessons Mr.Graham tried to teach………..feeling blessed….. after reading every page.
Ace i entered today :)..but only invested half…will invest my other half of capital if it comes down more 🙂
ok
Sir,
I had asked a query about Gujarat Borosil. I searched your blog also. Still have not found it.
pls google the blog
Hi ace pl give your view on rollatainer ltd thanks
decent…
Thanks ace pl provide technicals regarding this stock , at what rate can i buy it.
wrong question
Can i buy the stock at current levels for long term or wait for more correction , if so then what is the rate at which this stock canbe purchased
if you are interested this stock, then you should buy at a price you are most comfortable with.
Sorry but i would like to know because the stock is falling from 540 levels to 410 levels , can i see further correction or bottom is in place just like to know from you
sorry, no idea on that
view on Neo Corp International and APM INDUSTRIES LTD
dont like neo…apm not sure
Dear Sir View on ISGEC Heavy Eng
decent IMHO
Ace,
Your views on Shriram Transport at CMP.
Thanks
good at declines
sir ur view on ilfs eng. getting big projects . not coming down . from 115 odd levels came to 93. can we enter for medium to long term.
as mentioned earlier, i have given my positive views on this, and as far as i remember, it had come down to around 80-81 levels to even below that…
ACE<
Your take on company not having certification from USFDA/WHO/UK
they are not catering to regulated markets and therefore, they do not need USFDA and certainly not WHO certification. so far they are just catering to domestic market and to lupin. One should remember most of the capacities came online a couple of yrs back. having said that once, they are out of BIFR, and they introduce newer products they would obviously get all the relevant certifications. remember getting these certifications are not as difficult as maintaining them. given the pedigree of promoters GTBL has, it should not be a problem at all.
view on sunteck realty
as mentioned earlier, i am not comfortable with pure real estate companies. suntek came into limelight after mr.piramal invested in one of itsprojects. i am only slightly comfortable with affordable housing companies and nothing beyond. sunteck is a luxury housing company that too based in mumbai, which is reeling under over supply. just check with company about their projects that are to be completed because they account for revenues of only completed projects, this way you can estimate the earnings more accurately. again, not a fan of pure real estate companies and that does not mean sunteck reality is good or bad. please take your own call on these kind of companies as i do not like to track these companies very closely
Ace, we are going to meet the management of GTBL in the coming week. will share our broad findings with your readers if you are ok with it.
sure. Thanks
How is premco global.is it ok valuation wise
as mentioned earlier, its a decent company
was tracking prozone intu, recently SBI mututal fund sold 25lakh shares, but stock price is rising, any idea why this paradox
no idea.
shilpa medicare and biocon for long term
shilpa medicare very good …biocon somehow do not like
Your view on 1) Trilogic Digital Media Ltd., 2)Kriti Nutrients Ltd.3)Duke Offshore Ltd.
all three no change from my previous views
Please advise if I can enter ISGEC Heavy Eng Ltd @7000. In light of their JV with foster Wheeler and Hitachi.
probably at declines
Dear Ace,
Bought 1500 scripts of Prima (60 percent of my portfolio). Purely for long term.
Thanks for your movitation
ok, but i hope you are fully convinced before investing. now treat it as your own company and track is closely. God Bless
Ace recently i had told u i had invested only half my capital into gujarat themis biosyn…do u think i should wait for it to come down or should i invest the other half now itself?
this is something that you yourself has to decide.
thank u sir
for all ur valuable comment on each posting…
gr8
can we enter shipla medicare at present price, or SIP is better
that’s for you to decide
view on coral labs and KDDL
as mentioned earlier, both decent
Ace sir,
You have already given your positive opinion about Nitin Fire in response to my query few days ago. Sir, I tried to dig out further and feel a bit concerned about their rising debt level and also more about promoter’s pledged shares. Can we still consider it investment worthy as it seems to be a sector leader with impressive revenue growth YOY though suffering from not so impressive profit growth ??
if you are concerned that why do you want to buy?
Against lots of positives pledged promoters shares and high D/E is a big negative. I just sought your opinion on these parameters for arriving at a conclusion on this one.
Dear Ace, what is your views on parnax labs?
sorry, do not like it.
this is wonderful analysis the one you posted for Gujarat Biosyn, the best part is, the analyss is logical, crisp and to the point, fitting rightly to the interests of a common investor. I have a small suggestion, if you could publish a small table with 5 year comparison, of EBIT, free cash flow, Revenue, Net profit , EPS and debt(liabilities) , it would give an investor more confidence on the pick. But even otherwise thank a lot for these wonderful value picks
well, i dont really like writing so i normally take short cuts and give a one liner on certain things like cash flows, but will try to see what i can do more on this. Thanks
sir ur valuable views on d s kulkarni . between 2012 to 2015 . 10000 cr. expansion done. any views . thy are now in to two wheeler segments etc.
sorry, not tracking closely.
what is ur view on selan exploration in view of recent correction its p/e 14 marketcap 480 cr
well, its ofcourse a decent company, but not extremely keen on it personally
Dear Ace, thanks for your new stock …please provide your opinion on Cambridge Technology Enterprises…?
not interested in this company
sir,
what about kitex garments.I think it can be next page industries.Missed it at 500 but want to add now.What may be the technical support according to u??
not too focused on technicals.
Dear Ace, thanks for your new stock …please provide your opinion on Cambridge Technology Enterprises…?
not interested in cambridge
Thanks Ace ..:)
Ace sir i hold good quantity of freshtrop fruits at 63.2. i have not sold a single share uptill now. as the price is coming down sir is it advisable to add a bigger chunk at 90 to 95 levels. i know sir you would say its up to you. but sir please advise weather is should add a bigger chunk at 90 to 95 levels or not
cannot do portoflio management for people, but overall its a good story for long term.
ace sir thanks for your reply
Your views on ansal build well. Does it look undervalued given its assets and future projects
not interested in the sector other than probably affordable housing
Hi Sir,
one funda view required
TALBROS ENGG ONLY BSE LISTED (538987)
closely held
EPS 18
Available at 9 PE Compare to others around 25 to 50 PE
I WANT UR OPINION
Thanks in advance
well, its an ok to average kind of stock so far but the company’s product have potential…lets see if the story pans out.
Hello Ace,
I came across your blog yesterday
I started reading and finished 6 of your blog posts along with discussion since last evening.
I feel a little more knowledgable than yesterday. I only started from December. So, I am an amateur in every sense.
I never heard of BIFR, why promoters reduce FV, IMHO. Googled everything learnt something.
Thanks a ton for your contribution through the blog. Now, my eyes are on the finance course on this blog.
I stuffed my head with several books. But, nothing is concrete without live discussion. So, I have decided to follow each and every post of yours and comments.
I have no clue for some of the things…
1) How could you know about BIFR. Is it mentioned in Annual Report ?
2) How could you know about Lupin gave interest free loan ? Their new contract ?
3) How exactly do you research a company ? How do you pile tons of information?
It might be very obvious questions to you and other seniors here. But, it’s
we do not discuss other blogs here, so moderated your question a bit.to answer your questions:
1. yes.
2. again AR (which has almost everything an investor might need)
3. just like everyone else, start with google, AR, company announcements, business knowledge and if possible, talk to company and customers.
God Bless.
Ace , Please provide your view on Patels Airtemp… Thanks for all ur help…
its good as mentioned earlier
Hi Ace,
Do you think Bharat Forge can be added at CMP for fresh investment or wait for further declines? How much return you would expect over next 5 years from this company?
its a very good company no doubt and the regular readers would know that its my preferred pick in the large caps. its a good company to add on any decent declines
Thanks Ace. Do you like Just Dial (after recent declines) or Intrasoft Tceh at CMP for long term?
sorry cannot do portfolio management for anyone. just dial i have never liked. intrasoft is good but as a disclosure, i have vested interests in it for some time now
Sorry and Thanks Ace. Just wanted to have your view.
sure, its positive for the latter…
view on godrej properties
dont like the sector but among them, one of the decent few
view on Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd and sudar industries
no change from my previous views
Hello Ace ji….i was going through the AR-2014…..have some concerns on Contingent liabilities and multiple tax disputes related cases going on on various courts………both of these looking scary from investors’ point of view:
Pasting from AR:
Contingent Liabilities 31st March, 2014:
Contingent liabilities not provided for in respect of:
i) Letter of credit in respect of purchases, outstanding at the year-end –
ii) Income tax under dispute 12,463,599
iii) Fringe benefi t tax under dispute 201,972
iv) Disputed Labour Dues 61,028,138
v) Claim of interest on unsecured Loan from Gujarat Industrial Investment Corporation (GIIC) –
vi) Claim against the Company not acknowledged as debts 5,484,301
vii) Bank Guarantee given by UBI to DGVCL 12,500,000 –
Tax Disputes cases:
According to the information and explanation given to us, there are no dues of Sales Tax, Service Tax, Income Tax,
Customs Duty, Wealth tax, Excise duty and Cess, which have not been deposited on account of any dispute, except
the following:
Name of the Statute Nature of the Dues Amount,Period to which,the amount relates,Forum where dispute is pending
1)Income Tax Act, 1961 Demand u/s 143 (3) 10,79,703/- A.Y. 2001-2002 Hon. High Court, Gujarat
2)Income Tax Act, 1961 Demand u/s 156 48,88,257/- A.Y. 1996-1997 Income Tax Appellate
Tribunal, Ahmedabad
3)Income Tax Act, 1961 Demand u/s 156 32,34,870/- A.Y. 2011-2012 Commissioner of Incometax (Appeals), Valsad
Could you please analyse these two things and let us know the impact of this in future prospects of the company…..we should not overlook the bad things of the company just because we liked it right…….Please do not take it negatively and share ur view on these two genuine issues…..this will help for our conviction to be more stronger and increase holding in the company……Thanks in advance!!!!!!!
I have analysed these points before giving call on it (just like everytime). if i was concerned about these points, i wouldnt have given a positive view on it. I am not worried about it. if someone thinks these claims are valid, one should take their own call and hopefully the investor has taken into account enough research on this front before giving a verdict against the company. As i said earlier, your risk profile is not fit for these kind of stocks.
Thanks Ace ji for prompt reply……however as mentioned i wanted to be more convinced on this company as i want to increase the stake in this company as this is the only Pharma stock in my portfolio and as Pharma sector is going to do well in future i am planning to add more of this…..
My conviction is stronger that previous by seeing the below statement in the Annual Report -2014 (in the Future Plan of action section)which i am going through…..
“The Company is working aggressively to scale up new product.”
I liked their confidence instilled in the word ‘aggressively’ in the above sentence…
So i am strongly convinced about the future prospect of this company just like the management…….
Thanks a lot for finding this out…..God Bless U!!!!!!!!!
but you should have a strong reason to buy ..i have only this advise for you. please understand your risk profile before buying or you could land into trouble. anyways, its your money and your decision but its very very important (and i cannot stress how much) that one should understand his/her risk profile. its imporatant at the time of volatility. e.g. for wanbury when i had given a call for averaging if the conviction was strong and risk profile right, then he would be today sitting at more than double the money but if the risk profile is not right, quite rightly (for his risk profile) he must have sold at loss and would probably be repenting at opportunity cost. if a safe guy had invested in his/her own thought-of stock, the level of frustration would not have been high, even if he was loosing. ultimately we want to make money but not at the cost of our peace of mind.
Completely agree with you Ace ji on this……..i am fine with the risk(if any) of GTBL…so no issues for me……will add more once get some free cash and also will avg. if it comes down drastically like Wanbury……Thanks for all the advises!!!!!!!!
hopefully it wont 🙂
Yeah…either way i am fine with it……
🙂 ok
Dear Sir… I am a new reader of ur blog.. Sir.. I want to use this correction to make a fresh entry… Of ur recommendations, I liked v2, Prima, vidhi and of course ur recent pick.. Do u recommend fresh position in Prima at current prices or wait for a correction
i do not do portfolio management here, so cannot answer such vague queries. i think this answer is best answered by investor. if somebody is convinced then its a buy if not then dont. its very simple and there’s no need to complicate the decision and being small caps these stocks are bound to have volatility.
Oops.. I just wanted ur view.. as in do u see the stock break the resistance of 75.. thats all.. Just wanted ur opionion.. dats all
sorry, not keen on giving any technical views on stocks,
It’s k
sir,
Kindly share your views in Kitex and Granules.
Both are not cheap but have good potential.
Regards,
no change from my previous views on both
Sir.. added a few more quantity of prima today… just waiting for it to explode now.. enough of consolidation.. 😛
Thank u for the pick 🙂
Sir,
Last month I had asked you about United Drilling Tools, you had said that let it settle. Now it is on downward ceiling. At what price would be a decent buy for this stock.
at a price where investor himself/herself feels confident. but before that take a clarification on why the company did not comply to the exchanges by not posting regular results. this is not good so personally, given the wonderful opportunities we have, i may not feel too compelled to think about it
Ace, Where do you find Nifty support levels at present. I remember last time you mentioning 8300-8400 if I am not mistaken and the same got bounced back there. thanks
overall its a sell on rise market it seems now. if it does not bounce back and close above 8500 immediately then it could go down to 8250 and then probably even lower.
Hi, I have entered FF at 165 levels, do you think it’s worth averaging? Should I book losses? Can u suggest what should be the strategy?
why do you want to book losses? its a risky stock as we all know but its a good company run by capable management. basically your decision would depend a lot on your time frame and risk profile.
Thanks for your reply but it’s a bit scary seeing it on lower circuit since couple of weeks!
markets expecting the untimely rains to create problems for the company so pricing it. these kind of moves should always be expected in such stocks, both on upside and downside.
Great, so hope the downward trend ends and it stabilises before its upward journey, by the way do you think these unseasonal rains would weigh this much on the company results?
the company can reply this question better
Dear Sir
Sunpharma at this level cheap or expensive ?
sun pharma will never be available cheap… but if you have a five year view, sun pharma is a good investment at any level. its better to invest in sun pharma than FD, you’ll get better tax-free returns here
view on zen technologies and adi finechem
already replied on both the stocks earlier, kindly google the blog
view on apollo tyres and richa industries
apollo tyres is average, richa no change from previous views
dear Ace sir,
what is your view on Umang Diaries?
no change from my previous views
thanks
Hello sir.. do u like rain industries.. it appears to be attractively valued..
not very confident about it
sir as i said last time, GTBL has today given a big breakout. its closed on its highest ever levels. and this lifetime closing highs have come inspite of such a shallow market. We can see levels of 57-60 in next 5-7 days. If you do not mind please share my technical views with your readers.
shared.
Yeah,movement is good but personally i would be happy if it hovers around 50 and give me chance to buy around this level on April 30, 2015(waiting to get the salary on that and add more our GTBL)….anyway Cheers!!!!!!!
Dear sir
What is your opinion on selan exploration
With bent crude price firming up any possibility of rise
selan is operationally good, but crude prices always are the joker in the pack but in the sector its a decent company
Any prospects of a to z infra
lets see..
sir, met with the company, let me know if i can share a brief about our findings.
ofcourse, with the caveat that readers must use their discretion as noone is a verified user here and we dont know for sure if people are what they claim to be.
Valine ,ff has Come forward informing that unseasonal rains have affecting grapes .total export for grapes will be 30-35% less than last year but there is significant improvement in selling price.the unseasonal rainfall will havenot any significant effects on the profit for year2014-15.the effect will be on quarter1 of 2015-16 but this could be mitigated by better price realization.
Valine wats your take now ….can we start averaging now ?
what is a valine ?
Theres an announcement on Freshtrop from the company. Its on BSE. hopefully this should sooth some nerves…..
Freshtrop Fruits Ltd has informed BSE that the unseasonal rainfall has affected the grape export business of the Company. The total exports of grapes for the season would be 30 to 35% less than last year but there is a significant improvement in the selling price. The unseasonal rainfall will have not any significant effect on the profit of the Company for 2014-15. The effect will be there in Q1 of 2015-16 but this could be mitigated by better price realization.
good. thanks for sharing.
view on suven life sciences and swaraj engines
what is your own take on it ?
positive on swaraj, but suven has run up a lot but can reach higher?
ok
Had emailed FF last night requesting them to clarify the status and the effect on the company performance. They have done just that , which shows that the management is worthy enough for us to stay invested!
yes, and a lot of other readers also said they had done that. finally they have done the needful. its good
Ace, v2kart.com is online again with products listed. check out
Thanks for the update
What is your opinion on STAMPEDE CAPITAL
They claim to have global knowledge ware in wealth management.
Nmali
e
well, i have some trading positions in it as i had mentioned last time around. would suggest you to google my view on this blog on stampede
Does Gujarat Themis enjoy negative working capital because of its superior technical knowhow or is it a normal business practice in this kind of business?
pls go through the stock story …you will clearly get your answer there. also look at the ARs
Single product company, any problem can arise in future ?
would it stay like this foreever? are you aware of the bigger picture.would suggest you to research on the stock a bit.