Here’s the BSE notice:
“Freshtrop Fruits Ltd has informed BSE that the unseasonal rainfall has affected the grape export business of the Company. The total exports of grapes for the season would be 30 to 35% less than last year but there is a significant improvement in the selling price. The unseasonal rainfall will have not any significant effect on the profit of the Company for 2014-15. The effect will be there in Q1 of 2015-16 but this could be mitigated by better price realization.”
Its very good that company came out with this clarification. Its all thanks to the efforts of numerous investors like you who persistently kept on asking the company about the possible effects of unseasonal rainfall. It looks that though the Topline might be affected in FY 16, the EPS may not be affected much, and that’s a huge positive. Pricing improvement amid lower volumes displays pricing power and is again very encouraging. If investors remember, even in second quarter of FY 14 (as mentioned in the stock story) there were unseasonal rains (though only in maharashtra and much less ferocity) and they came out unscathed. If from this and last month’s unseasonal rains carnage they come out well (which looks possible from the above update), it will surely improve the confidence of investors in the capability of management because in a agriculture related business, the biggest risk is unseasonal rains and if this risk is addressed by management’s acute business acumen, then there’s no reason why freshtrop cannot command premium valuations.
God Bless !!!
Wowwww… wat a day.. Thanks for the poat ace… added a chunk tdy
today’s delivery volume of Gurajat Themis is more than 93%, again extremely bullish
Following is a small summary of our visit:
1. This year’s expected EPS is more than 4rs as the last quarter has been very good.
2. This year, i.e. FY 16, they will wipe off all accumulated losses.
3. No capex planned by company this year, and all the capex required to service LUPIN order would be funded by lupin.
4. Other than the lupin order, there is another news expected from Lupin which would be a positive surprise.
5. New products would be decided by Q3 FY16 and a lot would depend on Yuhan’s future plans with GTBL.
6. Lupin’s involvement with the company “could” be more than being just a client and this is going to be the most exciting part of the story.
Thanks for sharing… I hope readers take their own informed decision.
Thanks Ace …a big relief !!!!ff is My favorite !!!!
@luckychamp :All those 6 points were for Gujarat Themis Biosyn Limited and not for FF…..fyi….
@ vivekanalyst…lupin is probably goingto invest in gujarat themis…do u by chance got an idea about wat mode of investment it could be? whether debtfree loans or equity?
@roshan, debt-free loans is definitely there but their investment could be more than that. try to read between the lines
Great relief….Tomm onwards UC
Sir, Thanks for your updates on FF. I already have 200 shares at 62/- & still holds as confidence on you. Today reading your updates I add 200 shares at 90/- just before market starts & is circuit. Thank you very very much. God Bless.
please have confidence in the company rather than me 🙂 …anyways, nothing great about this update as i just copy-pasted the announcement.
Ace sir,
To keep the track of scrips recommended to your readers and keep them abreast as and when some new development (positive or negative) happens with the concerned company this itself speaks a lot about your commitment towards readers of this blog.
Needless to say it requires a lot of vigil and efforts on your part.
And that’s why you do deserve our hearty gratitude sir !
my job becomes easy because a lot of enthusiastic and sincere readers keep me and fellow readers updated about the developments in their companies. Thanks to all of you…God Bless
Gujarat them is running away ace. Didn’t bought the quantity I wanted to. But still happy and enjoying it. Thanks bro for the idea.
that’s great.
but remember stocks do not run up everyday and there are bound to be periods of inactivity of consolidation too.
Since everybody is buying Guj Them, Wanbury’s circuit is open!!! As per my calculations, Wanburyhas potential to report an EPS of 16 in FY15-16.
i dont think that’s the case as both are different companies, profile wise ofcourse. and please understand that no company keeps on moving on circuits. a bit of decline consolidation will always happen.by the way you should know that the circuit was broken 7-8 days back and it had retraced to 70rs and was oscillating between 70-80 bucks. if people were selling wanbury and buying gujrat themis wanbury would not be sitting at 52week high. Please do not blame one stock for the performance of others. would suggest investors to have patience. God Bless
also, would like you to substantiate your claim of 16rs EPS because that sounds highly impossible according to me. for 16 rs EPS, wanbury needs to have a 33cr net profit. now add to it, that approx 35cr of interest every year has to be paid then profit with interest should be around 68cr and now add to it depreciation and other things, the operating profit has to be humongous. so let’s not make crazy statements here. let’s be a little more responsible.
I bought Wanbury @ 30 Sold entire @ 70 Thanks for that ! shifted that amount to FF today ! Reg Wanbury your statement looks more responsible ! Thanks a lot Aceji !
wanbury is a wonderful bet, and its good to be possessive about the business that you own but does not mean one starts day-dreaming. one should give a realistic chance and expectation to the management ..
15k pending order @ 75 for prima. Kid seems to have grown up
good, its a big breakout 🙂
Indeed Sir. Hope it keeps scripting good story.
Hello ji…..Our darling stock Prima has blasted today with 20% UC with no seller available…..hopefully it closes at UC price of 75.15 which will confirm the long awaited break out!!!!!!! Thanks for all you effort and finding out the Gem for us…..Cheers!!!!!!!!!!
what’s important is today it is making a new high and on good volumes (not sure what is the current state since i am not infront of my screen) and that is a very bullish sign
Volume is very good Ace ji…its already 85k(against 10 day avg. volume of 40k)…and it will increase EOD as heavy buying is happening after breaking UC…..anyway All Credits goes to You…..Cheers!!!!!!
that’s encouraging. the fact that it’s hit a new high makes me feel good about it
Hopefully Waterbase also breaks out on the back of good volumes in near term!!!!!!!!!!
oopsssss missed ‘Ace’ after Hello……..
no problem, you’re excited and rightly so.
Ace , Prima at upper circuit… I am saying from bottom of my heart that you are providing Marvellous and wondeful help to small investors like me.. Thanks a lot ace.. Keep up the work… God bless… Thanks Prabu
congratulations to you to keep up your conviction on times on volatility
How do you rate Krebs Bio?
not interested in it anymore
what about the recent investment by IPCA and the news of one of its plants resuming operations?
precisely for this reason i am no more interested in it….
sorry to bother, but not clear? can you share your concerns?
no concerns here..i mean the story is now related to IPCA, so no fun for me to track it…
Thank u sir… Made decent profits today.. thanks to Prima and GTBL.. Can never thank u enough.. 🙂
Sir.. one query.. a lot was said about the closing price determining the next move for prima.. are u happy with the closing today?
where was it said ?
in general discussions over the blog only.. as in the stock facing resistance of 70-72…
dont get me wrong sir.. was just worried if thew stock could retrace to early 60s.. we desperately want it go beyond now…
it does not matter what you and me want. even if its goes back to xyz price what is the problem. the stock has given more than 70% returns in last 6 months and that is very good by any standards. volatility is part of game and if people cannot take it then they should investment in large caps. dont get obsessed by technicals. i wish you had started investing 3-4 yrs back and bear market would have taught you (and others), a thing or two about patience.
i dont think i discussed too much technicals on prima off late
sorry to have offended u
no sir, there’s nothing in your statement that’s offending but please understand that trading is one thing and investing is other. if you are a trader then trade, but if investor then look at the bigger trend rather than worrying on gyrations. anyways, as i said in the morning earlier, its a great news for me that today it created a new high and its very encouraging. the stock is now making higher lows and higher highs and we are in for a treat. the downside is protected and upside is just opening up. anyways, lets see.
sir i am holding kpr mills at rs 110 .should i hold it for more realization ? please reply chinmoy
no change from my previous opinion
Sir i hold the cybertech at 64. Should hold the stock or not. Please reply
your wish. but arent you convinced about the future prospects about the company? what has changed between the time you invested and now?
Great Ace!!
Ace sir.. thank u for ur wonderful pick prima plastics.. i am holding from the levels of 51.. making good profits.. i feel like adding more at current levels.. is it ok?
dont feel like repeating my views every two hours but i think my views should be very clear now. also i cannot do portfolio management for anyone. buying and selling should come from investor’s own conviction. we have discussed the business so much and people should not be thorough with it and you should use that knowledge along with your own conviction to answer this question
Learner.. please go through ace sir’s reply to one of my queries.. if u wont buy.. y do u think the others will..
Update on tasty bite for the benefit of investors in tasty bite.
This is from the filing of Kagome on acquisition of Preferred foods the holding company of Tasty bite
“The Company believes PBI can, on the medium-term, make JP¥10 billion sales and JP¥1.5 billion operating
income (both sales and operating profit are approximately 2 times against FY2015 forecast). This is based on PBI’s
current production and sales structures, track record for each customer type, and initiatives including (i) the fact
that PBI
(ii) the fact that PBI already has a significant presence in good distribution channels in the U.S., and (iii) the fact
that PBI is providing high-quality, distinctive products to growing global restaurant chains in India.
Other than the expansion of our business as listed above, the aim of this investment in PBI is not only to
strengthen our efforts toward implementing our existing global strategy of doing business with global restaurant
chains, but also to make it possible to participate in consumer food product business in the U.S., and through the
synergistic effect obtained by utilizing the strengths of both companies, achieve dramatic expansion of overseas
business.”
It is Preferred Brands and not Preferred Foods.
sir any idea on pondy oxide the equity after demerger has reduced to 5.8 cr while the eps after the demerger is rs 3.84 for december quarter vs full year eps of rs 2.8 it is an intresting stock i wand your exppert comments current price is rs 55
still no change from my previous view on this
any view on Samtex fashion
not extremely keen on it
Hi! Ace,
I’m strongly interest in buying decent quantity of Vidhi (holding small qty as of now) .Had written to them on their yahoo ID as provided.But it seems non-functional.Even their website is inaccessible.Somehow managed to speak to Mr. Manek and he’s not comfortable speaking on phone and has again told me to write an email.I’m totally going in circles.
I’ve query regarding their recent expansion , if you can throw some light or any other member on this blog;
1) What’s the current o/s debt after the new expansion
2) Has the commercial production started and ,
3) Do they have enough orders to utilise 50% expanded capacity? Am sure it will take time to ramp up and stabilise .
Thanks.
i hope you are using right id.
1. we’ll come to know during the results. but with the current debt of just around 2cr not much has been used in debt for this capacity addition as most of the expansion came from internal accrual . i dont even think its 1cr (from what i made out from our conversation – but still cannot be sure).
2. last time when i had a word it was supposed to start in first/second week of april.
3. ofcourse its going to take time to ramp up and if the day they come up with expansion of this 40% and they have enough orders to utilize this capacity the first day then its bad. This would speak very bad of the management as they were unable to anticipate the surge in demand ..these kind of management then becomes very unpredictable because if they are unable to anticipate demand surge they would quite well miss any indications for demand decline and this would mean bad capital usage by the company… therefore, given the high quality of management i do not think they would have enough orders to start ramping up on day one. and generally it never is and expecting that is highly illogical.
sir as i had said, today GTBL made a high of 59.5. the stock is very strong. Also for vidhi, i believe in next 3-4 weeks we should get 60-80% upside (from today’s level of 18.5 rs) and this should start anytime now. Its going to be a blast..Thanks for letting me sharing my views.
2. the trial production has but this year’s result would be clubbed with final declaration.
3. in this year we should expect 30% growth atleast, so dont worry about utilization just as yet.
Ace Ji,what’s your view on Prakash Industries?
not interested in it
Sir.. A general query.. Please post and answer only when u have time.. What is the concept behind technicals.. I mean when share markets are purely based on demand and supply, then how come technical experts are able to say that a particular stock is going to rise once it breaks a “resistance” or fall if it breaks a “support”.. What is the theory behind it.. I googled this question, but was not very satisfied with the content that I got..
if google cannot help you then atleast i cannot. you are trying to learn techical analysis and for that buy books and study.. google/amazon for technical analysis books
I just wanted to know he logic.. Not learn technical analysis.. Because I am more comfortable with fundamentals.. Anyways thanks for the reply
Hello STP…although the qs was not to me but wanted to answer(however i do not know the technical)….the fundamental rule is that the stock price does follow some kind of patterns established by big experts and it has been proved historically(provided no external(macro economic/company specific) shocks are not there)…….regarding the support/resistance…there are many methods to get it…one of them is simple moving average…..resistance : normally the stock price find it difficult to cross it thats why its called resistance…when substantial/fresh buying happens then it breaks that and for the same reason of substantial/fresh buying it keeps on going up after breaking resistance……similarly for support…..normally stock price does not get below it because fresh buying happens at this level thats why it is called support…but when people gets irritated with long long consolidations they try to get out of the stock by selling and huge selling pressure comes…thats when it breaks support and for the same reason of huge selling pressure it keeps on going down after breaking the support level…..hope this helps….Ace ji pls correct if i am wrong with any info…as far as i am concerned, i do not concentrate on technical at all and i believe if the underlying company does well business wise then the stock price will go up sooner or later……stock price must go as per the business activity of the company….thats what i believe………Cheers!!!!!
not read the entire message, i hope the author knows what he is talking about
It was for STP for his qs of logic behind technicals, how it works….. :)..but anyway Internet is the place to learn them in details as Ace ji mentioned……..Cheers!!!!!!
Thank u hafizul09 for that reply.. And thank u to ace sir too for letting people like hafizul08 and techiechartist share their knowledge.. 🙂
NO UPDATES ON ARO GRANITE
about what ?
Hi, ur view on Palred Technologies?
not interested as of now
Thanks Ace and vivekanalyst for the informative reply!
ACE, I just had a cursory look at Mandhana Industries. It looks undervalued as compared to Indian Terrain. What are your views on Mandhana?
no change from previous views
Ace – any resource you could indicate where i can teach myself technicals, for add on skill ?
yes, google … my starting point was that..
I did that prior to approaching but sub is out of my competency so thought i can use some help getting recommended to a text bk like site. No worries. Thanks Ace.
Aro Granite results are out…what ur view?? EPS has fallen…profit is less
the results are average IMHO. they have taken some debt, it looks some kind of expansion is on the anvil.
ok thanks…will try to contact company and then will share my findings
thanks
Dear ACE,
What is your view on Aaro Granite’s published Q4 and FY result ?
just replied to akshay on this
Hi Sir i am 19 jumping between Technical and Fundamentals now have settled @ Fundamentals as Stocks are pieces of Great Businesses i could own not just a piece of papers to trade back & forth.
I also know that everybody has its own style of investing some growth some value some seasoned and some just pure speculators.
I at this Moment Truly want to be a Long term Value+Growth Investor as time is by my side.
I am Currently Completed With Value Investor and now Reading Security analysis .
Sir The Only help i want is to detail a path for a 19 year old so that i do not make blind decisions i want some kind of roadmap towards investing for rest of my life and sorry for being long 😉
there’s no roadmap per se… experience would be your best teacher.
sir,coastal trawlers ltd,delisted what should i do with those shares
isnt coastal trawlers same as coastal corp?
yes same sir
so its not delisted
yes sir its nottrading on bse nor nse since a long time
well, not getting a trade is not same as being delisted
Dear ACEji,
its difficult to believe that there were virtually no Buyers for Gujarat themesis today .
So many of us were upbeat about it just few days ago and today no buyers at all ..
Thanks & Regards,
Prashant
if large caps like wockhart can fall 20%, dynamatics can fall 10% a bit of correction in small caps is ok… investors should be mature enough to understand this
Dear Ace,
In spite of management’s clarification , Freshtrop is hammered by the market…There is no support even at 90.00. Any comments ?
when the markets are free-falling, the performance of freshtrop has not been bad. hammering of freshtrop was when it slid down to 90 from 180 levels….i think investors should now have a clear understanding of earnings/risk. no stock has a one way direction
Sir, your views on L&T finance, pennar ind, sudarshan chemicals ?
all three decent.
prompt reply as always.. thank you.. Sir, this comment is in regards to Snowman Logistics. It would be helpful if you can comment about RadhaKishn Damani’s latest holding in this company. Latest shareholding pattern says he is not holding anything, which is very hard to believe. Is there anything that I’m missing here? Plz highlight.
not seen the SHP, but normally, i do not bother if an investor buys/sells a stock. they have their own reasons and we should have our own.
thank you for the reply sir. Snowman seems to be in a sweet spot with the monopoly that it is enjoying. And the recent numbers were good. any views?
as mentioned earlier, not comfortable with valuations though the company is decent