Freshtrop Fruits – BSE Update

Here’s the BSE notice:

“Freshtrop Fruits Ltd has informed BSE that the unseasonal rainfall has affected the grape export business of the Company. The total exports of grapes for the season would be 30 to 35% less than last year but there is a significant improvement in the selling price. The unseasonal rainfall will have not any significant effect on the profit of the Company for 2014-15. The effect will be there in Q1 of 2015-16 but this could be mitigated by better price realization.”

Its very good that company came out with this clarification. Its all thanks to the efforts of numerous investors like you who persistently kept on asking the company about the possible effects of unseasonal rainfall. It looks that though the Topline might be affected in FY 16, the EPS may not be affected much, and that’s a huge positive. Pricing improvement amid lower volumes displays pricing power and is again very encouraging. If investors remember, even in second quarter of FY 14 (as mentioned in the stock story) there were unseasonal rains (though only in maharashtra and much less ferocity)  and they came out unscathed. If from this and last month’s unseasonal rains carnage they come out well (which looks possible from the above update), it will surely improve the confidence of investors in the capability of management because in a agriculture related business, the biggest risk is unseasonal rains and if this risk is addressed by management’s acute business acumen, then there’s no reason why freshtrop cannot command premium valuations.

God Bless !!!

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109 Responses to Freshtrop Fruits – BSE Update

  1. prashanth reddy says:

    Wowwww… wat a day.. Thanks for the poat ace… added a chunk tdy

  2. techiechartist says:

    today’s delivery volume of Gurajat Themis is more than 93%, again extremely bullish

  3. vivekanalyst says:

    Following is a small summary of our visit:
    1. This year’s expected EPS is more than 4rs as the last quarter has been very good.
    2. This year, i.e. FY 16, they will wipe off all accumulated losses.
    3. No capex planned by company this year, and all the capex required to service LUPIN order would be funded by lupin.
    4. Other than the lupin order, there is another news expected from Lupin which would be a positive surprise.
    5. New products would be decided by Q3 FY16 and a lot would depend on Yuhan’s future plans with GTBL.
    6. Lupin’s involvement with the company “could” be more than being just a client and this is going to be the most exciting part of the story.

  4. shreeux says:

    Great relief….Tomm onwards UC

  5. Bhavana Chhaya says:

    Sir, Thanks for your updates on FF. I already have 200 shares at 62/- & still holds as confidence on you. Today reading your updates I add 200 shares at 90/- just before market starts & is circuit. Thank you very very much. God Bless.

    • please have confidence in the company rather than me🙂 …anyways, nothing great about this update as i just copy-pasted the announcement.

      • Ramesh Patel says:

        Ace sir,
        To keep the track of scrips recommended to your readers and keep them abreast as and when some new development (positive or negative) happens with the concerned company this itself speaks a lot about your commitment towards readers of this blog.
        Needless to say it requires a lot of vigil and efforts on your part.
        And that’s why you do deserve our hearty gratitude sir !

  6. sangram says:

    Gujarat them is running away ace. Didn’t bought the quantity I wanted to. But still happy and enjoying it. Thanks bro for the idea.

  7. Sameer Anand says:

    Since everybody is buying Guj Them, Wanbury’s circuit is open!!! As per my calculations, Wanburyhas potential to report an EPS of 16 in FY15-16.

    • i dont think that’s the case as both are different companies, profile wise ofcourse. and please understand that no company keeps on moving on circuits. a bit of decline consolidation will always the way you should know that the circuit was broken 7-8 days back and it had retraced to 70rs and was oscillating between 70-80 bucks. if people were selling wanbury and buying gujrat themis wanbury would not be sitting at 52week high. Please do not blame one stock for the performance of others. would suggest investors to have patience. God Bless

    • also, would like you to substantiate your claim of 16rs EPS because that sounds highly impossible according to me. for 16 rs EPS, wanbury needs to have a 33cr net profit. now add to it, that approx 35cr of interest every year has to be paid then profit with interest should be around 68cr and now add to it depreciation and other things, the operating profit has to be humongous. so let’s not make crazy statements here. let’s be a little more responsible.

  8. Suneetha says:

    I bought Wanbury @ 30 Sold entire @ 70 Thanks for that ! shifted that amount to FF today ! Reg Wanbury your statement looks more responsible ! Thanks a lot Aceji !

    • wanbury is a wonderful bet, and its good to be possessive about the business that you own but does not mean one starts day-dreaming. one should give a realistic chance and expectation to the management ..

  9. SAY says:

    15k pending order @ 75 for prima. Kid seems to have grown up

  10. hafizul09 says:

    Hello ji…..Our darling stock Prima has blasted today with 20% UC with no seller available…..hopefully it closes at UC price of 75.15 which will confirm the long awaited break out!!!!!!! Thanks for all you effort and finding out the Gem for us…..Cheers!!!!!!!!!!

  11. hafizul09 says:

    oopsssss missed ‘Ace’ after Hello……..

  12. prabu says:

    Ace , Prima at upper circuit… I am saying from bottom of my heart that you are providing Marvellous and wondeful help to small investors like me.. Thanks a lot ace.. Keep up the work… God bless… Thanks Prabu

  13. Sameer says:

    How do you rate Krebs Bio?

  14. STP says:

    Thank u sir… Made decent profits today.. thanks to Prima and GTBL.. Can never thank u enough..🙂

    • STP says:

      Sir.. one query.. a lot was said about the closing price determining the next move for prima.. are u happy with the closing today?

        • STP says:

          in general discussions over the blog only.. as in the stock facing resistance of 70-72…

          • STP says:

            dont get me wrong sir.. was just worried if thew stock could retrace to early 60s.. we desperately want it go beyond now…

            • it does not matter what you and me want. even if its goes back to xyz price what is the problem. the stock has given more than 70% returns in last 6 months and that is very good by any standards. volatility is part of game and if people cannot take it then they should investment in large caps. dont get obsessed by technicals. i wish you had started investing 3-4 yrs back and bear market would have taught you (and others), a thing or two about patience.

          • i dont think i discussed too much technicals on prima off late

            • STP says:

              sorry to have offended u

              • no sir, there’s nothing in your statement that’s offending but please understand that trading is one thing and investing is other. if you are a trader then trade, but if investor then look at the bigger trend rather than worrying on gyrations. anyways, as i said in the morning earlier, its a great news for me that today it created a new high and its very encouraging. the stock is now making higher lows and higher highs and we are in for a treat. the downside is protected and upside is just opening up. anyways, lets see.

  15. chinmoy ghosh says:

    sir i am holding kpr mills at rs 110 .should i hold it for more realization ? please reply chinmoy

  16. Vikas says:

    Sir i hold the cybertech at 64. Should hold the stock or not. Please reply

  17. Puru says:

    Great Ace!!

  18. Learner says:

    Ace sir.. thank u for ur wonderful pick prima plastics.. i am holding from the levels of 51.. making good profits.. i feel like adding more at current levels.. is it ok?

    • dont feel like repeating my views every two hours but i think my views should be very clear now. also i cannot do portfolio management for anyone. buying and selling should come from investor’s own conviction. we have discussed the business so much and people should not be thorough with it and you should use that knowledge along with your own conviction to answer this question

    • STP says:

      Learner.. please go through ace sir’s reply to one of my queries.. if u wont buy.. y do u think the others will..

  19. MNREDDY says:

    Update on tasty bite for the benefit of investors in tasty bite.
    This is from the filing of Kagome on acquisition of Preferred foods the holding company of Tasty bite
    “The Company believes PBI can, on the medium-term, make JP¥10 billion sales and JP¥1.5 billion operating
    income (both sales and operating profit are approximately 2 times against FY2015 forecast). This is based on PBI’s
    current production and sales structures, track record for each customer type, and initiatives including (i) the fact
    that PBI
    (ii) the fact that PBI already has a significant presence in good distribution channels in the U.S., and (iii) the fact
    that PBI is providing high-quality, distinctive products to growing global restaurant chains in India.
    Other than the expansion of our business as listed above, the aim of this investment in PBI is not only to
    strengthen our efforts toward implementing our existing global strategy of doing business with global restaurant
    chains, but also to make it possible to participate in consumer food product business in the U.S., and through the
    synergistic effect obtained by utilizing the strengths of both companies, achieve dramatic expansion of overseas

  20. MNREDDY says:

    It is Preferred Brands and not Preferred Foods.

  21. rajul desai says:

    sir any idea on pondy oxide the equity after demerger has reduced to 5.8 cr while the eps after the demerger is rs 3.84 for december quarter vs full year eps of rs 2.8 it is an intresting stock i wand your exppert comments current price is rs 55

  22. gaurangray3 says:

    any view on Samtex fashion

  23. Rohit Gulati says:

    Hi! Ace,
    I’m strongly interest in buying decent quantity of Vidhi (holding small qty as of now) .Had written to them on their yahoo ID as provided.But it seems non-functional.Even their website is inaccessible.Somehow managed to speak to Mr. Manek and he’s not comfortable speaking on phone and has again told me to write an email.I’m totally going in circles.
    I’ve query regarding their recent expansion , if you can throw some light or any other member on this blog;
    1) What’s the current o/s debt after the new expansion
    2) Has the commercial production started and ,
    3) Do they have enough orders to utilise 50% expanded capacity? Am sure it will take time to ramp up and stabilise .


    • i hope you are using right id.
      1. we’ll come to know during the results. but with the current debt of just around 2cr not much has been used in debt for this capacity addition as most of the expansion came from internal accrual . i dont even think its 1cr (from what i made out from our conversation – but still cannot be sure).
      2. last time when i had a word it was supposed to start in first/second week of april.
      3. ofcourse its going to take time to ramp up and if the day they come up with expansion of this 40% and they have enough orders to utilize this capacity the first day then its bad. This would speak very bad of the management as they were unable to anticipate the surge in demand ..these kind of management then becomes very unpredictable because if they are unable to anticipate demand surge they would quite well miss any indications for demand decline and this would mean bad capital usage by the company… therefore, given the high quality of management i do not think they would have enough orders to start ramping up on day one. and generally it never is and expecting that is highly illogical.

      • techiechartist says:

        sir as i had said, today GTBL made a high of 59.5. the stock is very strong. Also for vidhi, i believe in next 3-4 weeks we should get 60-80% upside (from today’s level of 18.5 rs) and this should start anytime now. Its going to be a blast..Thanks for letting me sharing my views.

    • vivekanalyst says:

      2. the trial production has but this year’s result would be clubbed with final declaration.
      3. in this year we should expect 30% growth atleast, so dont worry about utilization just as yet.

  24. somitosh says:

    Ace Ji,what’s your view on Prakash Industries?

  25. STP says:

    Sir.. A general query.. Please post and answer only when u have time.. What is the concept behind technicals.. I mean when share markets are purely based on demand and supply, then how come technical experts are able to say that a particular stock is going to rise once it breaks a “resistance” or fall if it breaks a “support”.. What is the theory behind it.. I googled this question, but was not very satisfied with the content that I got..

    • if google cannot help you then atleast i cannot. you are trying to learn techical analysis and for that buy books and study.. google/amazon for technical analysis books

      • STP says:

        I just wanted to know he logic.. Not learn technical analysis.. Because I am more comfortable with fundamentals.. Anyways thanks for the reply

        • hafizul09 says:

          Hello STP…although the qs was not to me but wanted to answer(however i do not know the technical)….the fundamental rule is that the stock price does follow some kind of patterns established by big experts and it has been proved historically(provided no external(macro economic/company specific) shocks are not there)…….regarding the support/resistance…there are many methods to get it…one of them is simple moving average…..resistance : normally the stock price find it difficult to cross it thats why its called resistance…when substantial/fresh buying happens then it breaks that and for the same reason of substantial/fresh buying it keeps on going up after breaking resistance……similarly for support…..normally stock price does not get below it because fresh buying happens at this level thats why it is called support…but when people gets irritated with long long consolidations they try to get out of the stock by selling and huge selling pressure comes…thats when it breaks support and for the same reason of huge selling pressure it keeps on going down after breaking the support level…..hope this helps….Ace ji pls correct if i am wrong with any info…as far as i am concerned, i do not concentrate on technical at all and i believe if the underlying company does well business wise then the stock price will go up sooner or later……stock price must go as per the business activity of the company….thats what i believe………Cheers!!!!!

  26. vibhu gupta says:


  27. vimal says:

    Hi, ur view on Palred Technologies?

  28. Rohit Gulati says:

    Thanks Ace and vivekanalyst for the informative reply!

  29. Sameer Anand says:

    ACE, I just had a cursory look at Mandhana Industries. It looks undervalued as compared to Indian Terrain. What are your views on Mandhana?

  30. SAY says:

    Ace – any resource you could indicate where i can teach myself technicals, for add on skill ?

  31. Akshay says:

    Aro Granite results are out…what ur view?? EPS has fallen…profit is less

  32. Abhik says:

    Dear ACE,
    What is your view on Aaro Granite’s published Q4 and FY result ?

  33. Hi Sir i am 19 jumping between Technical and Fundamentals now have settled @ Fundamentals as Stocks are pieces of Great Businesses i could own not just a piece of papers to trade back & forth.
    I also know that everybody has its own style of investing some growth some value some seasoned and some just pure speculators.
    I at this Moment Truly want to be a Long term Value+Growth Investor as time is by my side.
    I am Currently Completed With Value Investor and now Reading Security analysis .
    Sir The Only help i want is to detail a path for a 19 year old so that i do not make blind decisions i want some kind of roadmap towards investing for rest of my life and sorry for being long😉

  34. kumar says:

    sir,coastal trawlers ltd,delisted what should i do with those shares

  35. Prashant says:

    Dear ACEji,
    its difficult to believe that there were virtually no Buyers for Gujarat themesis today .
    So many of us were upbeat about it just few days ago and today no buyers at all ..

    Thanks & Regards,

  36. J Gopal says:

    Dear Ace,

    In spite of management’s clarification , Freshtrop is hammered by the market…There is no support even at 90.00. Any comments ?

    • when the markets are free-falling, the performance of freshtrop has not been bad. hammering of freshtrop was when it slid down to 90 from 180 levels….i think investors should now have a clear understanding of earnings/risk. no stock has a one way direction

  37. .p.d. says:

    Sir, your views on L&T finance, pennar ind, sudarshan chemicals ?

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