Singer India
Singer india posted good set of numbers. Most encouraging has been growth of consumer durables which seems to be growing fast compounded with a strong and sound balance sheet.
God Bless !!!
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Thanks..!!!
thanks for the update
Thanks…!!!
sir now looking to take a plunge in Shri keshav cements…
ok
Ace,what’s your take on the fall of the price of Deccan Gold.I could not find out any reason for its fall.today also it is at lower circuit.
not worried. a bit of volatility can always come. we should not be worried with short term gyrations.
sir what’s your take on sequent scientific…
it has promise but at the present valuations not comfortable
Ace
On Singer, would you know what percentage of their sales is consumer appliances ?
& do you see margins improving
God Bless
its written there in the segment wise results.. please open the link that is posted …. you will find the consumer durable sales listed there.
Ace,
Pl share your expert views on …. Astec life science takeover by Godrej Agrovet Limited
– promoters have agreed to sell 45.29% of the current paid-up equity shares at a price of Rs. 190 per share to GAVL ….. This is at discount to cmp (240). Why would someone do that in a bull market. Promoters had 54% of their stake as pledged but …. or does this mean promoters no longer see potential. What is your opinion\analysis of this scenario.
well, a lot of promoters do it. its not uncommon. according to what i saw on tv, apparently promoters had come out with this deal based on mar 15 earnings and after that the results have been good which was priced in the stock price. now i dont know whether it is true or not though.
Thanks Ace. Probably there is more to it that what seems on the face of numbers displayed. But from shareholders perspective, this should be positive development – strong\deep pocket promoters taking over. Also Balram Singh Yadav, MD, Godrej Agrovet, said that they will retain the current management.
So overall looks fine and the company can expect better days ahead.
Plz share your view on Transport Corp of India, NIIT Ltd, Thanks in advance !
like TCI..not too keen on niit though
sir what u dont like about bike hospitality,their buisness model or promoters or overvaluation
there are several…let me ask you why do you like it?
1. byke hospitality has asset light model.
2.good numbers and ratios.negligible debt.
3. i could get to speak to md easily two times and clear all my doubts.
4. they have a moat.only company which buys rooms in select locations for a period and sells through 200 plus agents.
5.good growth plans through internal accruals only.
6. they cater for MICE segement.
7. only vegetarian food served in all their locations.this attracts lot of domestic tourists.
8.planning to come in 8-9 new locations
9.they lease a hotel,renovate it for 3-4 cr.break even in first year.their lease3s are for 10 yrs plus.this improves their roce.
10. now getting into wedding plannings.
11.hotel reviews not great as yet but get good income from food and beverages.
12. gst will help them a lot.
13. lot of positive takeaways from their recent concall 31 jul 15.m cap is also 600cr only
14. i was very impressed by getting through to their MD so easily.
15. related party transaction not much.remuneration management is also normal.
16. request any red flags from your side which i may have missed
first of all let’s not call point 4 a moat… and its important to note that ICRA suspended its credit rating due to lack of information sharing from the company to ICRA. This is a huge issue. Its nice to know that your interaction with the company was smooth because i had a very different experience when i was into it. Furthermore, as you rightly pointed out their properties are not good at all (first hand experience) hence, this explains the reviews. So after all this and especially the scuttlebutt, i am no more interested in the company though this should not stop anyone else to take a call on this. Now at these valuations especially with ICRA rating suspension, investor’s should be 110% sure of their investment thesis before taking a call. God Bless
Thanks for the update.
Dear Ace, should we buy deccan gold to the maximum capacity so as to get full benefit of R.I or should we buy in SIP Form.ALSO what could be the reason for promoter selling and not subscribing to R.I at huge discount. Don’t u feel this will shake the investor’s confidence.
its up to you what to do with your money but to be eligible for rights, one needs to posses the shares on the record date. promoters have been selling the shares for last couple of yrs nothing new and they have not sold whole lot. Yes, ideally they should have subscribed, but there could be several reasons for not subscribing.
Please share your view pennar ind & PFS
pennar is ok… PFS not too keen.
sir, when is the AGM of mangalam?
i believe this is on 3rd sep…these kind of things are available on the BSE website
ace sir freshtrop has started selling a new product under fresh cut ( ready to eat) segment
Pomegranate Arils – Ready to Eat!
Availability: 52-Weeks!
this will improve sales and profits of the company for the full year
yes, came to know about it…. its really great… Thanks for the update.
i think sir this is a great move by the management as this indicates they are now focusing on products which are sold throughout the year, if they can come up with 2 or 3 more products like that than the tag of seasonality of the business will be removed a bit.
yes, and i guess in the last AGM they did mention that they are going to increase the spread of fruits to reduce seasonality of earnings.
Ace ji—complete bloodbath both in Dalal Street and portfolio——-where do u think NIFTY will settle—–7500? or less than that—looking scary—-
stop watching tv for a couple of months and if you have cash then buy more if your price comes.. nifty is not the portfolio right… and individual stocks are doing well… nifty can ofcourse go down more but that should be a good opportunity in individual stocks.
In office now, so no tv but yes was seeing in internet occasionally—–yes, wish i had some free cash—-seeing good stocks tanking but not able to buy——anyway hopefully market stabilizes as soon as possible so that individual stock can go high(if markets is crashing , it will force all shares to go down—-sentiment.. 🙂 )–anyway Thanks.
if the markets are not going down in one direction then not all stocks go down.
Yeah, there might be some exceptions but then that is very less and overall portfolio is down very much—–with GDP growth 7% which is less than expectation of 7.5 our defensive RBI government should cut the rate before the policy review scheduled on Sept 29—and i expect him to cut this before that date by 25 bps at least—lets see—-if we compare the borrowing cost with USA(near zero), China(around 4%), India is having very high rate of 7.35%……this must be reduced——then only the investment will pick up and economy will grow—-
ooppss type: current repo rate in India : 7.25% not 7.35%
if rate cuts had such strong co-relation to growth then china would not be de-growing despite multiple rate cuts.anyways i am not an economist, but i feel that we have a world class brain managing things for us in the best central bank in the world i.e RBI so really not worried on this part. I trust his instincts more than my own
Yeah agree—-Rajan ji has good knowledge and he is doing well , however for the growth to pick up, investment needs to be picked up which will be possible if cost of borrowing is reduced——China has many other problems which India does not have—-Fiscal deficit, CAD, Inflation, govt, public spending opportunity etc. are good in India—–latest data is showing that consumer demand is also growing due to low inflation which is a very good sign——so India is very well poised for good consistent growth , however investment must pick up——-
Regarding stock market reaction to positive/negative movement of global countries——recently SENSEX,NIFTY is crashing due to China stock market is crashing—but when China market was flying in last 1 year up to 2-3 month before(before starting correcting) and went up some around 60%(which is HUGE compared to India has 16% upside that time and on todays date SENSEX and NIFTY is giving negative return in last 1 year but after so much crash in China, still Shanghai Composite is up by some 30-35%) then India was not flying—–now China is crashing , SENSEX, NIFTY are crashing—–
My point is when SENSEX,NIFTY did not follow China market when it went up then why its following when its crashing—-I understand China economy is not in good situation now but stock market is crashing not only because its economy slowdown , rather its because it went up by odd 60% and FIIs are booking profit well before economy actually falters——–China market should not have gone up so much(60%) at first place, the up movement was not justified at all———also I was very much surprised to see US market crashing by 4% on that Black Friday considering the market participants are more knowledgeable there——it did overreact on China’s Yuan devaluation——-
Also US market went down by 4% but SENSEX, NIFTY went down by 6%, but when US market recovered by 4% and China market went up by 5.5%, our SENSEX went up only by 2%(on last Thursday)—–so SENSEX,NIFTY is not going up by same %, its going up by les %(underperforming global market) BUT when coming down , its coming down more % than others(again underperforming global market)——ur input pls on this matter as why India is underperforming global market when Economic conditions are much better in India than those countries——
Thanks in advance!!!
developing markets are expected to outperform both on downside and upside. actually india has done way better than almost any developing market be it russia, Indonesia,taiwan,brazil etc etc. Markets went down because of the unknown china affect… devaluation was just a start and this proved that the problems are for real in china but unfortunately, noone knows anything about china. chinese economy is such a close guarded monster and this is what making markets world over nervous. in any case, our markets were looking for a reason to correct and they did. 20% correction can come anytime in a bull market..even 30% can come. so not really worried. rather i am very happy that finally we are getting so many ideas on good valuations now.
Dear Ace,
I have been going through all of your research and suggestions here in this blog and appreciate all your great efforts. But, I would like to tell you one thing, but it is my humble opinion only, if anyone asks about detail about any company, just give as always you do like “decent” “not keen on it”, etc, instead of asking them to search blog. Just a single word is enough for them. As I said, it is just my request. Please continue the great work. God bless..!!
money making is a serious thing and if investors are not even ready to take an effort of doing a basic google search then i really doubt their seriousness towards wealth creation.
Dear Ace,
Thanks for your reply. I put that request just because to minimize your reply time. I am not supporting inquirers. Thanks again and god bless!!
i take your point too sir..
Ace,where do u think the fall in deccan gold will stop.i was expecting good buying in it so that one would be eligible for R.I,but its happening exactly reverse of it.Isn’t it giving indications that investors are not ready to subscribe it.
its your opinion not mine. people are also selling nifty does not mean nifty is useless…. up and down is part of life, and as mentioned in the stock story its not for everyday vigil and one should invest “only” if one has multi year horizon.
Ace sir,
Your view on Kanoria Chemicals please… I came to know that company is changing its product line with more focus on speciality chemicals.
i am not aware of any such plan
Dear Ace,Pl let me have your view on Nitin spinners and Damodar industries
nitin is ok ..damodar i am not interested … but my fav is ambika…
Dear Sir,
Your views in thirumalai chemicals. tried searching your blog but couldnt find.
Many thanks.
sorry, not keen on it.
may i know the reason why – is it due to too many options available or it does not pass through your filters. reason why I am asking is so as to learn.
It seems to be a very good investment and if you find it appropriate, I would want to give you my reasons to invest and would request you to give your counter points. But in case you just dont track it, we will leave the topic.
many thanks.
so many reasons. actually this stock is discussed multiple times on the blog. but sure we can discuss the merits. let me know why you like it so much
thank you for the opportunity; following are the points:
1. Co.’s chemical business seems to be impacted from the international crude prices. Lower prices seem to reduce the inventory costs and squeeze margins. yr 2013-14 saw huge volatility and subsequent fall in prices, denting co.’s profits and margins. still co. managed to make some profits due to increased efficiencies in management, inventory and working capital mngmt.
2. As a result of the said efficiencies, the co. has seen turnarnd as seen from the past qtrs – march and june, wherein they made more profit than the whole of last yr. This time Co. has also been able to better manage the volatility and low crude prices, as is evident from the results.
3. Co. has been consistently reducing its debt. Total debt has reduced from 400 cr to 130 cr in past 4 years. Of this long term debt has been reduced from 200cr to 67 cr in past 3 yrs alone. This signifies healthy cash flows, profitability and reduced finance costs.
4. Co. has seen encouraging results from sales of alternate and derivative chemical products in the domestic market – sales are already 100cr and expected to cont at significant rate.
5. Co. has a Malaysian subsidiary which was expanding and renovating – on internal accruals. It is already working on full capacity and has sales of USD 27million, but had a loss of 3.2 million due to modernisation and all. Minus such expenditure in future Co. foresees healthy profits.
6. Co. has been known to incorporate technological advances since 1980’s and has a reputation for its products internationally.
7. Has been paying consistent and healthy dividends. Presently aprrox. 2% div. yield.
8. Mkt Cap 230 cr; PE of 6.5.
9. Crude is not going to US$ 0 ; is already seen a significant correction. Whenever the crude prices move northwards, the co. should be a direct beneficiary.
10. Co. exports chemicals, weaker rupee will only help.
Your views sir.
your first point is precisely the reason why i am not interested here. its purely a chemical company and a direct proxy of crude. I am not interested in buying a company where i have to worry continuously about a commodity. Improving balance sheet, cash, etc is available in so many companies. The low PE is not value here but something that it deserves. We should see why would someone pay higher price for this kind of business. Highly cyclical company. Therefore, as mentioned earlier, not at all interested here sir.
Thank you for your views sir. I dont want to argue for the sake of proving a point, but want to learn. If it were a direct proxy to crude then they seem to have performed quite well in the falling crude prices and can keep up the pace? Shall we monitor it for following quarters to see the performance or you think it is not worth it.
Thank you for giving your precious time.
as mentioned i am not keen on this.
by the way my thesis should not stop anyone from researching any company..
Hi.. Ace and Sparsh.. Such a healthy conversation has been carried on here. Thanks for the research done by the latter and the answer given by the Ace…!!
Ace, this question is purely from educational perspective … have you in your long experience in stock market seen this situation similar to people dumping deccan gold shares even till the last date of RI ex-date knowing very well that RI price is at a deep discount to the current price. There should be a method in madness too, hence wondering if market players know more than what is available in the public domain.
yes its possible especially since the rights price is much lower. google it, lots of interesting stuff.
Dr Ace,
What’s your view on Ashok alco-chem Ltd at CMP 113 Having an EPS of 30+ and also ROE 53%.Pls share something about this scrip.
sorry dont track it closely now
Ace,
What is your take on Markets. Is it time to stay away for some time 2/3 weeks or take small dips OR as some say “Sell on highs”. I am requesting this query as we have seen , though you are more into fundamentals of companies, you are good at technicals too. Your advice will help us take a planned decision on accumalating more of the good fundamentals stocks – V2Retail, Vidhi DyeStuff, MIC et
when markets go down its time to buy not sell…also, in the last couple of yrs portfolios must have been up multiple fold, so even if there’s some decline, people should not give up winning positions. One should be looking to buy stocks at any significant declines.
sir, in this falling market, i would request you to recommend a new stock, if valuations are good. its been quite a while now
yes, working on something right now
Sir,can you tell us that if we don’t subscribe to R.I in Deccan gold then what will we loose and if we subscribe to it then what will we gain.Is the gain in terms of only dividend (if we receive it in future) because the price is already ex-rights.Therefore, even if i subscribe then also my net worth will be the same as cum – rights.Regards
your average price would come down if you are allocated the stocks in the rights allocation.
Hello Ace! is these something wrong going on with Deccan Gold? 22% down
ex-rights price
Dear Ace,
Was going thru a report on Deccan Gold website ,wherein they have given a sensivity table showing NPV and IRR at various market rates for Gold viz a viz the Gold reserve of the Ganajur mine.
@ USD 1100/ounce,the NPV (@10%) discount is only Rs. 154 crs. and IRR works out approx. 25%.
My ques. is that if the NPV is just 154 crs,the market cap today is Rs. 229 crs.How to compare these two things to value the Company?
pls dont use NPV in relation to market cap. this could be seriously misleading. please go through the links i have provided to hear from the CMD the revenue potential of the mine …also pls go through the analyst transcripts too. An investor should regularly attend the analyst call that the management conducts. That’s very useful.
Sir , I got deccan gold @69CMP . I am looking at atleast 5 year horizon . Is it good time to purchase more to average out cost or i should wait until prices stabilize a little .
i guess its pre-rights price …if this is the case andyou have subscribed for the issue then the price could be lower than 69 for you.
How to apply for the Right issue of Deccan Gold, Is the application is online or through form. Can you please guide. As my broker is asking me to check with the company for the process of applying for the RI
your broker only knows… as it is broker specific..i guess hdfc icici etc give direct online access.
Hi Ace, after your advise on Deccan Gold I contacted my broker but he said they didn’t know anything on this…. pls call-up the company registrar office.
Thereore, I followed-up with the SPA capital office (lead Manager) and they told that a form would come at the investor’s address (around Oct first week) and then one can apply for this RI.
Ace, can you also advise on the pricing…. My buying price was around 74, so now after stock being ex-RI what is the actual holding price of my stock. how is it calculated?
i think calculation is pretty obvious what is the confusion you have. do you know the rights offerring? if yes, then what is the confusion in calculating it? pls shed more light ..
I understand the RI is 2:1…. my buying price was 74 whereas Deccan’s 52 week high is 71 on charts. this is where the confusion is….
pls either google to undersand more about rights issues or go through tons of literature that we have already discussed on this issue. I have already replied about such a query to someone else too.
Hello Ace! Added huge quantity of Cybertech today.
pls do not disclose your trades here as requested numerous times in the past
Alright Ace!
Sir what is your view on Liberty Shoes and South Indian bank? I am holding these since a year or more.
Should i shift my capital to other stocks. Sir please answer as I think this is the right time for me to shift.
liberty shoes is a recommended stock, so my views should be clear on this. south indian bank i am not too keen.
will liberty pay normal tax or concessions still available this year
what concessions?
Sir, what could be the reason for this drastic fall in deccan gold. Is something fishy. Do u suggest buying more at present levels or to wait until picture becomes more clear.
its a price of ex-rights price nothing fishy?
sir,do u suggest to add more at current levels or wait for some more fall
i mean do u suggest to add more of deccan gold at current price or wait for some more fall as i am already stuck at price of 75
dont think the stock price went to 75rs… i guess the 52 week high price is 71… dont forget its now trading at ex-rights price as mentioned so many times in the last two days on this blog. Averaging is normally done when the price is significantly down…not just 20-25% down from recommended price. As mentioned in the stock story one should invest in the stock “only” if he/she has a long term vision. No point in checking the price of “any” stock every day or every hour. This anxiousness of yours is probably coming because you have no conviction in the stock that you have bought it seems. Rome was not built in a day.
Ace sir,
Cybertech seems very strong around 34, don’t know technically but i think the effect of recruitment of employees n execution of orders will start to reflect in sept quarter onwards.Your views..
lets see.
THANK YOU ACE. FOR ALL THE INFO>GOD BLESS.
thanks. would appreciate small caps though.
Plz share your view on Ananthraj Ind. Thanks in advance !
not too keen on real estate companies.
Sir,
One more question regarding Ashiana housing, will it be good to invest in this stock for long term??
depends on your risk apetite on holding. one should also evaluate poddar developers
Dear Sir,
I would like to know your views about Themis medicare and mold tek packaging.
Themis has announced good quarterly no. and shows good strength in recent correction.However it is difficult to understand pharma sector and sustainability of the earnings.
while mold tek has IML technology and planning big to increase turnover by entering into newer sectors.
your views will be of great help.
themis seems to be improving but its subsidiary gujarat themis is a more efficient producer as of now. mol tek is ok
deccan gold 52 week high is rs 91
refer ex-rights price
happy teachers day ace…god bless u 🙂
Thanks for the kind words.
Sir,
Hawkins cooker available at attractive, raw material cost also decreasing and will be one of the indirect beneficiary of “housing for all by 2022”
Your valuable inputs please?
at the moment there are better bets available. Hawkins needs to do something urgent to improve its performance.
Happy Teachers Day Sir…thank you so much for everything :)….god bless
Thanks and wish you the same. God Bless !!!
Happy Teachers Day sir, have become a improved investor in your guidance and hoping the same for the rest of my life. Thank you for that……..you are really a perfect teacher.
appreciate your kind words. Thanks and wish you the same.
happy teachers day ace sir
Thanks and same to you sir.
Dear Sir,
Ideally how many stocks should be there in a portfolio. We hear about stock concentration and also diversification. Also there could be many attractive opportunities and you never know mkt gives what value to a particular stock at a time. Even there are 27 stocks given here under watch.
Should there be a max limit? For eg I have 40 stocks in my portfolio and I am convinced about all of them. Am i doing it wrong and should I further limit the portfolio?
Many thanks.
having a stock under watch and having it in portfolio is two different things. I am a firm believer of concentrated portfolio because that has worked for me and that makes me most comfortable.But everyone has their own method as some people cannot sleep at night if they have just 5-7 stocks in the portfolio and some people (like me) feel strange to have too many stocks in the portfolio. An investor should choose his/her own style and that comes with gut most of the times.
Thank you for the answer Sir. It puts so much emphasis on ‘research’. You are correct, lot of gut is needed to stick with fewer stocks, as having more stocks has given me peace of mind during turbulence as it eases the losses but also compromised on the returns.
Thank you and wish you a happy teacher’s day!
Thanks and wish you the same.
Thx a lot for your stock recos..almost all of your recos are super hit…but if any one asks you dat he is new to dis site n completely missed your recos in past and now u just plz command ..”go and buy these five stocks..”..what are those stocks in your preference serial??….plz reply sir…
you will have to choose the stocks that you want to buy. You have so many choices listed here. Take the five you yourself are most convinced of. I cannot give any preference here as that would give wrong signals to other investors who own different shares than those five shares. Please do your own due diligence.
Ace, IUHO, can Rajoo Engineers be accumulated at price <13?
rajoo engineers is a recommended on this blog and so far my view has no changed on the stock.
sir, i wish there was a stock recommendation at these turbulent times because right now i think the valuations would be very good.
yes, as i said a couple of days back, i am working on something.. .let’s hope by today or tomorrow i am able to post something
Request sir to put in market hours, else for 10 days not able to buy 😦
for this stock it should not happen ..enough liquidity , plus market conditions are such that half of the people would be too scared to buy so people who are genuinely interested will get a good scope to buy.
sir, what’s your take on IL&FS Engg
same as earlier… its ok..
freshtrop is looking at very good value point right now sir…..
right and so many others… these kind of opportunities unfortunately are not taken by investors as they are too obsessed with the thought of seeing M2M losses in the short term and forget to see the bigger picture
sir, what’s your take on sequent ?
sequent has been far too long on promise alone… hope the business delivers on the lofty valuations..
sir,your view on dalmia bharat for a long time frame?
dalmia bharat is decent though one should look for opportunities in high quality small caps like shri keshav
Sir greetings. Deccan gold is continuously falling and daily hits LC. It seems it may go to 20 level. What is the reason? Can you explain. Can I add more if it goes below 30.
dont see any change in fundamentals in the company.
The fall in deccan has been ominous.. In my experience of the stock market, I have seen these kind of fall with some of the scripts when insiders or connected market players know more than what it is in public domain..By the time retail investors know, their wealth would have been eroded significantly. Cutting one’s loss at some price point is also a strategy which some of the succsessful investor’s have advocated in the past. It’s better to leave the battle to live for another one … Even though nothing has changed from the business perspective but continuous fall on circuits tell us that something somewhere is seriously wrong and people in the know, know about it and therefore selling. Ace, this is the juncture where your experince and acumen is tested.. dont know if you got a chance to speak to the management recently and heard that nothing wrong on the business prospects.
if someone is so worried, then one should take the pain and talk to the CS and attend the so many conference calls the company conducts. By the way these falls are not new to the blog, we have seen stuff like this in cupid, waterbase,wanbury etc.. Anyways, enough discussion on deccan but again as i said some time back, i dont know anything negative in the company.
Ok then what is reason behind Promoter selling shares on every good news or rise…why they are not confident about own holdings?? Its happened many times…one or two ok but not everytime imo…
what is the reason that page industry’s promoters have been selling shares for last so many years? Why did cupid promoter sold shares last year when the price went up? if promoters were not happy in deccan gold and wanted to exit they would have sold in huge chunks when they got opportunity and not just in small chunks? Do people know in last three years how much promoter holding has declined in case of deccan gold viz-a-viz page… i think we have already discussed it so many times on this topic… also this fact was known even when the stock story was published. Noone questions about page because page’s stock price has only gone up and this is what price action does to investors. If deccan had gone up, noone would have questioned it. One should have conviction in a company and only then one should take a call in it.
I dont have answer to these Ace but you provided food for thought though 🙂 thanks again for clarifying.
see, pls understand that price action normally brings about a lot of doubts, one should have conviction in stocks to counter them.
Thanks sir for your reply.
looks like markets have bottomed out….right sir?
bottoms are not made in a day actually… its a process… also my first target is met.. will see the action for some time to access more
When is the new recommendation coming Sir?
not sure…
Hi ace. Pls Suggest a pick in banking space for a long term. Would like to know your view on syndicate bank too. Thanks
not keen on syndicate bank.